- Analysis
- #522 ATLANTA (+) over Milwaukee at 8:30 PM EST
With or without the services of star guard Trae Young, the Hawks will rally the troops and even this series up at 2-2 when it grabs this huge upset victory. The Bucks accomplished their mission of regaining homecourt advantage with their dub in Game 3, and they won't be at their best in this matchup.
Technically speaking, this is a lucrative spot for the home team. Since 1991, NBA Game 4 playoff hosts that trail 2-1 in a series own a respectable 51-31 SU and 48-31-3 ATS mark provided they take the court off a SU and ATS loss. If our "play on" side is running the floor against a non-division opponent, this postseason situation cruises to a lucrative 39-21 SU and 36-21-3 ATS including an elite 34-17 SU and 33-16-2 ATS provided this is not the NBA Finals. Equally impressive, NBA Playoff non-division hosts that hold a team won/loss percentage of .544 or better own a money-making 24-9-2 ATS mark provided they check in off a SU and ATS home dog postseason loss. As long as our "play on" home team isn't grabbing +8.5 or more, this situation tightens up to a sensational 24-7-1 ATS. That bodes well for Hotlanta.
This is going to be a tough wagering spot for the Deer. Since May 12th, 2014, NBA Playoff road teams hold a soft 43-68 SU and 46-63-2 ATS record provided they arrive off back-to-back SU and ATS postseason victories. If our "play against" guest is fighting a foe that holds a team won/loss percentage of .510 or better, this technical situation falls to a miserable 35-64 SU and 39-58-2 ATS including a woeful 31-57 SU and 32-54-2 ATS provided they are not competing with same season revenge. Also, when coming off back-to-back SU and ATS victories and fighting a foe that played in the comforts of home last, the Bucks hold a disturbing 80-104 SU and 71-108-3 ATS tally including an ugly 49-88-3 ATS if they are priced as a favorite or an underdog of +3.5 or less.
With Young's status up in the air, the general public will want to fade the Hawks badly. Rest assured, head coach Nate McMillan will find a way to keep his kids in this game with, or without, his best player in the lineup. Take Atlanta. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
