Sean's 10* MLB FRIDAY NIGHT SLUGFEST SHOCKER!
- Handicapper
- Sean Murphy
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers
- Time
- 04/30/2021 08:05 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers Over 8 (-114)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday.
We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams in the opener of this series last night - the fourth consecutive 'under' result for the Red Sox and the third in a row for the Rangers. I expect a reversal of sorts here as Boston sends Nate Eovaldi to the hill against Koehi Arihara. Eovaldi started his career by doing a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he hasn't allowed a single home run. I don't think that trend is sustainable, however, noting that he has recorded a home run percentage of over 4.0% in three of his last four seasons (he missed 2017 due to injury). With that being said, Eovaldi has been solid pretty much across the board this season but he still owns a career .268 opponents batting average and the Rangers bats have been waking up a little bit lately, plating 23 runs in their last five games. I'm willing to take a flyer in the Texas bats against the veteran right-hander here. Kohei Arihara is not off to a great MLB start, having recorded an ugly 53.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats with opponents hitting a collective .268 against him this season. The Red Sox are slumping a bit at the dish right now but this looks like a high-potential for a breakout spot after getting stymied by Kyle Gibson and his ground ball-inducing exploits last night (as I pointed out in my analysis supporting my play on the Rangers +1.5 runs in that game). Arihara has yet to make it through six innings in a start this season so look for the Red Sox to take a confident approach to the plate tonight. Take the over (10*).
