Sean's 10* NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Sean Murphy
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers
- Release Date
- 04/17/2021 07:23 AM
- Event Date
- 04/17/2021 07:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Milwaukee Brewers -143
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- MLB National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.
The Pirates took the first game of this series in blowout fashion last night (we won with the 'under'). I like the Brewers to get one back on Saturday as they go up against Buccos journeyman starter Trevor Cahill. Cahill is quite simply barely hanging on at the big league level - now pitching for his ninth different team since 2014. Things haven't been going particularly well for the veteran right-hander. He earned himself a $1M contract with the Pirates this year thanks to serviceable work with the Giants last year, in a very limited sample size. Through two starts with the Pirates, Cahill has posted an 8.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. It gets worse. He has recorded a 53.8% hard-hit ball percentage, 91.2 mpg exit velocity and a 34.6% fly ball percentage - all considerably worse than the MLB average. Cahill was once a true ground ball pitcher but after posting a ground ball percentage well north of 50% every year from 2015 to 2018 he hasn't come close to touching that number since. His strikeout rate has managed to improve the last couple of years but his home run percentage has also ballooned. With opponents teeing off to the tune of a .324 batting average against him in limited work this season, I look for the Brewers bats to come alive on Saturday. Milwaukee will counter with a veteran starter of its own in Brett Anderson. Unlike Cahill, he has settled in during his twilight years at the big league level. Anderson continues to induce ground balls at a solid rate. He's been better than the MLB average in terms of ground ball percentage and fly ball percentage throughout his career, including through two starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .243 against him through 10 innings of work here in 2021. While the Pirates have been playing better baseball lately, they're still likely to bring up the rear in the N.L. Central this season. Look for the Brewers to respond following last night's lopsided defeat. Take Milwaukee (10*).
