- Analysis
- At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (477) and the Minnesota Vikings (478). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-1) has won three games in a row after their 36-10 win at home against Baltimore as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (6-1) had won their first six games of the season before a 19-15 loss in Detroit against the Lions as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings only gained 266 yards last week against a suspect Lions defense. Minnesota scored 39 points in their opening games against Green Bay, but they gained only 239 yards. Since that game, they are scoring only 16.8 PPG (blame McCarthy!) while never scoring more than 23 points and failing to score more than 16 points in four of those games. The Vikings have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss on the road. Head coach Kevin O’Connell is turning to Carson Wentz under center with Kyler Murray supposedly dealing with a hamstring injury — but this just seems like another soft benching like he used to do all the time with J.J. McCarthy. I thought McCarthy was the reason why there are high gas prices, remote AI cyberhacking, and the stagnant Vikings offense. Yet the Minnesota offense has not looked any different since the team traded McCarthy to New York (where he continues to win games). I was always puzzled why so many pundits thought Murray would be a good fit for the Vikings’ offense since he lost his job with Arizona, who are now paying him $35 million this year to play somewhere else. What if the problem was not McCarthy? In my deep dive on this team in the offseason, I concluded that the problem was Minnesota’s subpar offensive line. This season, the Vikings are surrendering 3.0 Sacks Per Game with a sack rate on 9.8% of their dropbacks, ranking 24th and 28th in the league — and Wentz is, by far, the least mobile quarterback when compared to Murray or McCarthy. I have also recently concluded that part of the problem is O’Connell’s rigidity with his offensive scheme. Before last season, I had nothing negative to say about O’Connell. I think winning close is not purely luck, as proper game management is a skill — and O’Connell thrives in this area. But his offense is a mess schematically right now. These seven-step drops and three levels of receiver routes in the vertical passing game look great when operating at a high level — but it quickly fails if the offensive line can not give the quarterback time. These Minnesota QBs are facing pressure as soon as their dropback is completed. O’Connell has adjusted by running the ball more when McCarthy returned from injury last season (winning their last five games with him as their starter). Now O’Connell continues to play in low-scoring games that rely on his defense and game management while the Giants quickly constructed an offensive scheme that better fit McCarthy’s skill set. So, no, I don’t think Carson Wentz suddenly unlocks the “Quarterback Whisperer’s” Kirk Cousins offense. In his two games this season, Wentz has a 59.0% completion percentage on 39 pass attempts while averaging 138.0 passing Yards-Per-Game (and he played most of the game in the opener against the Packers). His three touchdown passes against Green Bay were helped by the Packers giving that game away. Last season, Wentz completed 65.1% of his passes, but his six touchdown passes were tempered by five interceptions. He has rushed for only five yards this season. Minnesota returns home, where they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total. They have played 9 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games at home Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. They have also played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is overseeing a defense that leads the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. They also lead the league by limiting their opponents to just 1.1 Points-Per-Drive. Since that Packers game, they have not allowed more than 23 points in their next six games — and they held four of those opponents to no more than 16 points. Those last six opponents are only scoring 11.8 PPG. The foundation of Flores' system is aggressive blitzing that deploys very sophisticated disguised looks regarding where the pressure will be coming from. However, the Lions demonstrated the blueprint that neutralizes Flores’ approach. Detroit deployed heavy doses of 13 personnel featuring three tight ends. This does two things. First, it creates levels of deception in the offensive attack since the three tight ends can be used in the passing game. Aggressive blitzing may create openings in the field for these targets. Second, running the football takes the bite out of these blitz schemes. While many defensive coordinators like to blitz against the run, they do not have the element of surprise since the blitzes need to follow the runner (or engage in a risky guessing game, blitzing a space that the play may avoid, even as the running back begins evading would-be tacklers). The Lions ran the ball 39 times for 230 yards and generated 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. The Lions’ commitment to running the ball kept the Vikings offense off the field for 35:43 minutes of that game. Buffalo is going to run the ball and attempt to control the time of possession in this game. Against the Ravens last week, the Bills’ offense was on the field for 37:36 minutes. Head coach Joe Brady loves using 13 personnel — it is how they surprised Houston in their opening game when they scored 36 points against that very good Texans defense. I am not expecting that level of success tonight — but I do expect them to burn time off the clock to attempt to fatigue the Minnesota defense. In Josh Allen’s 68 starts on the road, Buffalo has played 40 of those games Under the Total. The Bills have also played 3 of their last 4 games on the road Under the Total in November.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is supported by several intriguing empirical angles. Here’s an interesting one that seems apt. In games on Monday Night Football when the home team is coming off a loss, 36 of those last 50 games finished Under the Total. Minnesota wants to regain their winning formula — and that means O’Connell’s sound game management and a conservative script to eke out another close, low-scoring game. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (477) and the Minnesota Vikings (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
