- Analysis
- At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (477) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (478). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-1) has won three games in a row after their 36-10 win at home against Baltimore as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Minnesota (6-1) had won their first six games of the season before a 19-15 loss in Detroit against the Lions as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is overseeing a defense that leads the NFL in Opponent Expected Points Added per Play Allowed. They also lead the league by limiting their opponents to just 1.1 Points-Per-Drive. The foundation of Flores' system is aggressive blitzing that deploys very sophisticated disguised looks regarding where the pressure will be coming from. However, the Lions demonstrated the blueprint that neutralizes Flores’ approach. Detroit deployed heavy doses of 13 personnel featuring three tight ends. This does two things. First, it creates levels of deception in the offensive attack since the three tight ends can be used in the passing game. Aggressive blitzing may create openings in the field for these targets. Second, running the football takes the bite out of these blitz schemes. While many defensive coordinators like to blitz against the run, they do not have the element of surprise since the blitzes need to follow the runner (or engage in a risky guessing game, blitzing a space that the play may avoid, even as the running back begins evading would-be tacklers). The Lions ran the ball 39 times for 230 yards and generated 5.4 Yards-Per-Carry. The Lions’ commitment to running the ball kept the Vikings offense off the field for 35:43 minutes of that game. Of course, quarterback Josh Allen brings an additional element in countering the blitz that Detroit’s Jared Goff lacks, given his great mobility. Allen has rushed for 4.9 YPC while gaining 25 first downs and nine touchdowns in his seven games. Buffalo is going to run the ball and attempt to control the time of possession in this game. Against the Ravens last week, the Bills’ offense was on the field for 37:36 minutes. Head coach Joe Brady loves using 13 personnel — it is how they surprised Houston in their opening game when they scored 36 points against that very good Texans defense. Buffalo has scored at least 24 points in each of their games this season — and they have scored 33 or more points five times. Flores also deploys Cover-2 pass coverage schemes more than twice the rate of the league average. In Brady’s 55 games calling the offensive plays as either the head coach or offensive coordinator, the +0.14 EPA per play is the best mark in the NFL (and it helps to have Allen as your quarterback). Against Cover-2 schemes, his EPA mark more than doubles to +0.32 per play. Against the blitz, Brady’s EPA per play with Buffalo is +0.27. Teams can wear down this Minnesota defense. The Vikings’ opponents are averaging 5.3 YPC in the second half against them. Minnesota’s defense has also benefited from a soft schedule that includes Indianapolis, Tampa Bay (before they made the appropriate adjustment to run the ball more), Miami, and New Orleans. In their opening game, Green Bay gained 419 yards against them before their fourth quarter collapse when they gave that game away with a series of miscues and mistakes. The Bills lead the NFL in EPA per play and rank third in Offensive Success Rate. Their rushing attack ranks third in EPA and is tops in Success Rate. Their passing game leads the league in EPA per Dropback. Buffalo has covered the point spread in 5 of their 7 games this season in Brady’s rookie season. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their 17 games against teams with a winning record. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss against a fellow NFC North rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss by six points or less. Head coach Kevin O’Connell is turning to Carson Wentz under center with Kyler Murray supposedly dealing with a hamstring injury — but this just seems like another soft benching like he used to do all the time with J.J. McCarthy. I thought McCarthy was the reason why there are high gas prices, remote AI cyberhacking, and the stagnant Vikings offense. Yet the Minnesota offense has not looked any different since the team traded McCarthy to New York (where he continues to win games). I was always puzzled why so many pundits thought Murray would be a good fit for the Vikings’ offense since he lost his job with Arizona, who are now paying him $35 million this year to play somewhere else. What if the problem was not McCarthy? In my deep dive on this team in the offseason, I concluded that the problem was Minnesota’s subpar offensive line. This season, the Vikings are surrendering 3.0 Sacks Per Game with a sack rate on 9.8% of their dropbacks, ranking 24th and 28th in the league — and Wentz is, by far, the least mobile quarterback when compared to Murray or McCarthy. I have also recently concluded that part of the problem is O’Connell’s rigidity with his offensive scheme. Before last season, I had nothing negative to say about O’Connell. I think winning close is not purely luck, as proper game management is a skill — and O’Connell thrives in this area. But his offense is a mess schematically right now. These seven-step drops and three levels of receiver routes in the vertical passing game look great when operating at a high level — but it quickly fails if the offensive line can not give the quarterback time. These Minnesota QBs are facing pressure as soon as their dropback is completed. O’Connell has adjusted by running the ball more when McCarthy returned from injury last season (winning their last five games with him as their starter). Now O’Connell continues to play in low-scoring games that rely on his defense and game management while the Giants quickly constructed an offensive scheme that better fit McCarthy’s skill set. So, no, I don’t think Carson Wentz suddenly unlocks the “Quarterback Whisperer’s” Kirk Cousins offense. In his two games this season, Wentz has a 59.0% completion percentage on 39 pass attempts while averaging 138.0 passing Yards-Per-Game (and he played most of the game in the opener against the Packers). His three touchdown passes against Green Bay were helped by the Packers giving that game away. Yes, Minnesota scored 39 points, but they gained only 239 yards. Since that game, they are scoring only 16.8 PPG (blame McCarthy!) while never scoring more than 23 points and failing to score more than 16 points in four of those games. Last season, Wentz completed 65.1% of his passes, but his six touchdown passes were tempered by five interceptions. He has rushed for only five yards this season. In Wentz’s last 8 starts at home as an underdog, his team failed to cover the point spread in all 8 games. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 53 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Vikings are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after playing the Lions since Dan Campbell became their head coach — and they are failing to cover the point spread by -9.0 PPG in those contest.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota is giving up only 13.3 PPG — but the Bills are 24-8-1 ATS with Allen under center against teams that are holding their opponents to no more than 20.0 PPG. They are also 12-4-1 ATS in those games when playing on the road. 10* NFL Buffalo-Minnesota ABC-TV/ESPN Special with the Buffalo Bills (477) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
