NFL PRIMETIME CONTINUES TO WIN (TBay W)
- Handicapper
- Wayne Root
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings
- Release Date
- 11/09/2026 09:12 AM
- Event Date
- 11/09/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Minnesota Vikings +3 (+100)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Root Reserve on Minnesota
It's only fitting these two clubs cap off Week 9's slate of games and the first half of the 2026 season with the first Monday NightFootball between the franchises. The historical quirks don't begin and end there, though. The matchup also pits the league's top scoring defense against its best scoring offense; Minnesota is holding opponents to just 13.3 points per game while Buffalo is averaging 20 points more (33.3) per contest. According to NFL Media Research, in Weeks 8 or later, games featuring this particular matchup have been split at 8-8 (since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger).
When it comes to facing non-divisional opponents, the Vikings are part of a unique stretch that hasn't been seen in more than a half-century. Entering Week 9, NFC North teams are 17-3 this season in games outside of the "Black and Blue" division, the best mark by any division through eight weeks since the merger (not including the 1982 strike-shortened season).
With Kyler Murray battling a hamstring injury, Carson Wentz is starting this game for the Vikings. Frankly, that development doesn't really change my feelings about this matchup, which never hinged on the home team's quarterback. Minnesota's best chance at coming away with a victory will be to blitz Josh Allen into oblivion and hope it disrupts Buffalo's offense enough to result in a low-scoring slugfest.
Defensive Coordinator Brian Flores, as everyone knows, is very much up to that task. His defense is blitzing at a rate of 71.0, which is 30.7 higher than the second-ranked Giants (40.3), per NFL Pro. For an idea of how absurd that is, the gap between Giants and the least blitz-happy team (Bengals, 18.9) is 21.4. Allen hasn't been particularly amazing against the blitz compared to the rest of the league. He is currently 20th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks with an 88.2 passer rating when facing extra rushers.
Despite their record, the Bills are not playing great football. They were frequently out of sync offensively in Baltimore, and the defense was lucky to be facing a third-string quarterback. This is a much more challenging spot for them, especially on the road in prime time. Their three road wins this season have come by a combined 11 points, and they're due for a dud against an absolutely dominant defense.
