NFL MONDAY NIGHT INNER CIRCLE POWER!
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings
- Release Date
- 11/08/2026 11:46 PM
- Event Date
- 11/09/2026 08:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Minnesota Vikings +3 (+100)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- I like the Vikings getting the points at home here on Monday night mainly because of Minnesota's defense against Buffalo's league-best scoring offense. The Vikings allow just 13.3 points per game, fewest in the NFL, and lead the league in red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on only 25% of opponents' trips inside the 20. Brian Flores blitzes on a league-leading 73% of snaps, and last week he blitzed Detroit's Jared Goff on 90% of his dropbacks. Minnesota has 25 sacks, at least four in five of its seven games, led by Andrew Van Ginkel with 6.5 and Dallas Turner with 6. The Vikings are also +7 in turnover differential, with 12 takeaways against 5 giveaways, while Buffalo is -2 with 11 giveaways, and the Bills rank 27th in opponent EPA per play. Buffalo allows 25.9 points and 366.4 yards per game, so this should stay a one-possession game in a dome, where Minnesota is 3-0 at home.
Kyler Murray is out with a hamstring strain, so Carson Wentz starts, having completed 23 of 39 passes for 276 yards and three touchdowns this season. Minnesota's offense averages just 20.0 points and 299.3 yards per game, ranks 30th in EPA per play, and is also missing running back Demond Claiborne and receiver Jauan Jennings, with left tackle Christian Darrisaw questionable. Josh Allen is the MVP favorite for a reason, averaging 356.1 passing yards per game with 11 passing touchdowns plus 270 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns, and Buffalo just beat Baltimore 36-10. But the Vikings' defense is built to make Allen earn every point, and Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones and a home crowd should give Wentz enough to stay inside the number.
Jim’s Play: 478. Vikings
