TDG’s MLB DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros
- Release Date
- 08/14/2026 06:49 PM
- Event Date
- 08/14/2026 08:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Over 8 (-112)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* MLB AL West Total of the Month is with the Seattle/Houston over at 8:10 pm et.
The Houston Astros won for the second time in their previous three games with a 2-1 win at San Francisco on Wednesday. The Astros have played thirteen of their previous sixteen games over the number after an off day. They have played five of their previous eight games over the total after winning their previous game, and they have played seventeen of their previous twenty-eight games over the number at home after winning their previous game this year. The over is 5-1-1 in their previous seven games after playing a game where they did not score more than three runs, and they have played six straight overs after playing a game where they did not allow more than two runs. After playing their last six games on the road, they return home, where they have played six of their previous eight games over the total after playing their previous three or more games on the road. They have played five of their previous six games at home over the number which has raised their record at home to 33-24 to the over. The Astros have played twenty-two of their previous thirty-four games over the total against division opponents. They are averaging 5.0 runs per game against teams from the AL West while hitting .250 with a .344 on-base percentage and .424 slugging percentage in those 37 games. They are expected to face the Mariners' George Kirby. The right-hander has an 8-9 record with a 3.68 era and a 1.27 whip in twenty-two starts. On the road, he has a 4.10 era and a 1.44 whip in nine starts. In his last five starts on the road away from T-Mobile Park, he has a 5.14 era and a 1.61 whip. Kirby is only striking out 20.6% of the batters he has faced, which is a career low and ranks in the lowest 36th percentile. Opposing hitters are getting an average exit velocity of 89.6 miles per hour, ranking in the lowest 30th percentile. These opposing hitters are getting a hard-hit rate of at least 95 miles per hour in 41.5% of their batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest 27th percentile. Kirby has been fortunate to strand 76.0% of the runners who get on base against him. That number is likely to drop since his strand rate in the previous two seasons has been 71.6% and 71.3%. The MLB strand rate average this year is 72.4%. Houston has played twenty-seven of their previous forty-six games at home over the total against opponents using a right-handed starting pitcher. They have played twenty-six of their previous forty two games over the number when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite up to a -150 price.
Seattle ended a six-game losing streak with a 1-0 win in New York against the Yankees on Thursday. The over is 6-2-2 in their previous ten games after winning their previous game. The over is 11-6-1 in their previous eighteen games after not allowing more than two runs in their previous game. The Mariners continue their six-game road trip with the fourth game in a row on the road. They have played sixteen of their previous twenty-seven games on the road after playing their previous three games on the road. The over is 11-5-1 in their previous seventeen games on the road, and they have played eight of their previous twelve games on the road over the number when the oddsmakers installed them as a moneyline underdog priced up to +150. Against division opponents, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game with a .251 batting average, a .329 on-base percentage, and a .404 slugging percentage in those thirty games. The Mariners are expected to face the Astros’ Peter Lambert. The right-hander has an 8-6 record with a 3.09 era and a 1.15 whip in twenty starts. His margin of error is small when considering he is walking 9.3% of the batters he has faced, ranking in the lowest 39th percentile. He has been cutting things close when it comes to stranding base runners as well. His left-on-base rate is at 81.0% despite his career strand rate being at 70.4%. Play the over.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
