VW'S MLB BLANK CHECK WINNER # 27 OF 36
- Handicapper
- Vegas Writer
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds
- Release Date
- 08/14/2026 03:15 PM
- Event Date
- 08/14/2026 06:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Cincinnati Reds -112
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Chase Burns has been the better pitcher over the full 2026 season, and I like the Cincinnati Reds to beat the Miami Marlins on Friday night because the 23-year-old right-hander gives Cincinnati the combination of swing-and-miss stuff, run prevention and home-field advantage needed to win what should be a tight pitching matchup.
Burns enters Friday 13-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, compared with Alcantara at 13-6 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The difference isn't simply their records. Burns has been substantially better at preventing runs, and his high-octane arsenal gives him more ability to manufacture outs via the strikeout rather than depending on balls being put in play.
That matters against a Miami offense coming off an ugly performance. The Marlins were held to three hits in Thursday's 13-1 loss to Pittsburgh, striking out 10 times against Braxton Ashcraft. Miami has now lost three consecutive road games, so this isn't an ideal spot to encounter Burns' power repertoire.
The one caution is that Alcantara is pitching much better than his season ERA suggests. He's thrown three consecutive scoreless starts, and his ERA over his last 13 outings is down around 2.55. So I wouldn't characterize this as a major mismatch on the mound. In fact, Alcantara may currently be pitching his best baseball of the season.
But Cincinnati has seen him before and hasn't been overwhelmed historically. Alcantara is just 2-5 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 career appearances against the Reds. Cincinnati also enters Friday with some offensive momentum after scoring nine runs and hitting three homers in Thursday's 9-8 victory over the White Sox.
The pick: Reds. Burns' season-long advantage over Alcantara, Miami's struggling offense and three-game road skid, Cincinnati's power at Great American Ball Park and the Reds' home-field edge give me enough reasons to back Cincinnati. FanGraphs' current matchup projection also gives the Reds approximately a 56% win probability.
I'd expect Burns to rebound from allowing five runs in his previous outing and give Cincinnati six strong innings. In what looks more like a 3-2 or 4-2 type of game than a slugfest, Burns is the starter I'd rather have protecting a small lead.
