VW'S MLB DIVISION TOTAL OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Vegas Writer
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Release Date
- 08/14/2026 02:51 PM
- Event Date
- 08/14/2026 07:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays Over 8 (-112)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- From the American League East, this is the matchup that epitomizes double-digit numbers and could finish as if the Ravens were facing the Buccaneers, rather than the Baltimore Orioles visiting the Tampa Bay Rays. This has the makings of a 14-10 final.
The Orioles have scored 10, 5, 5 and 5 in their last four games, all on the road, against the Rangers and Twins. In total, those games averaged 12.0 runs per game. Now they're off to visit a division rival that is putting an underachieving starter on the mound.
I don't know if the Rays can trust Steven Matz (5-4, 5.46), especially with what he's looked like in Tampa. The 35-year-old left-hander is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in 11 home appearances (five starts), while visiting lineups are hitting .269 against him.
The Rays will need to bail him out by stepping offensively. Eight of his 22 appearances have seen the Rays and their opponents land in double digits. And career-wise, he's 3-3 with a 4.79 ERA in 11 career appearances against the Orioles.
Thus, I'm banking on their offense to shatter Baltimore starter Chris Bassitt (4-4, 5.27), who has struggled to a 1-3 mark and 8.14 ERA in six road starts this season. The host lineups he's faced this season have a .353 batting average against him. And it's bad news for him against the Rays, as he's a putrid 1-7 with a 4.17 ERA in 11 career appearances (10 starts) against them.
Three of the six meetings this season have gone over, but combined, they've averaged 11.8 runs per meeting. The three in Tampa have averaged 11.6 runs per game. This one is soaring.
