Nelly’s NL East Total of the Month 75% RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Washington Nationals vs New York Mets
- Release Date
- 08/14/2026 08:33 AM
- Event Date
- 08/14/2026 07:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Over 8.5 (-115)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Robert Stock has a 10.13 ERA in two starts this season and the 36-year-old journeyman owns a 5.40 ERA in his MLB career that has totaled just over 83 innings. Both bullpens have struggled recently with a 4.57 ERA for Washington and a 4.50 ERA for the Mets with a 1.63 WHIP over the past five games. Andrew Alvarez has delivered some recent success on the mound but his 4.34 FIP is well above his ERA and allowing just two home runs in over 69 innings of work is not something Alvarez will continue to get away with. Alvarez has a 4.2 BB/9 and while the Mets lineup has plenty of faults, New York is a top 10 walk rate and top 10 lowest strikeout rate lineup since July 1. The Mets are 8th in team wOBA since July 1 while Washington ranks 1st as both offenses are very capable. Washington is hitting .259 with 6.3 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitching in the past 10 games while the Mets are batting .260 with 4.5 runs per nine. Washington has a 4-3 edge in the season series and the average scoring in this series in 2026 is 12.2 runs per game. The Mets have a winning record so far in August even with the roster changes and big scoring numbers allowed with 9.5 runs per game on average. The New York pitching staff appears to be wearing down with a just completed nine-game road trip, allowing at least five runs in five of the past eight games. In August Washington games are averaging 10.0 runs per game and Washington has scored at least five runs in six of the team’s past seven games. Big numbers can be expected in this pairing Friday with some wind pushing out to right field, and both teams will have some left-handed power in the lineup tonight.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
