Nelly’s Friday NL Knockout 63% MLB RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds
- Release Date
- 08/14/2026 08:21 AM
- Event Date
- 08/14/2026 06:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Miami Marlins +103
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Reds held on to win yesterday in Chicago, using seven pitchers in total and surviving tense eighth and ninth innings to hold on to a 9-8 win despite being outhit 12-8. Cincinnati has recently moved out of last place in the NL Central, and the Reds are 6-5 in August but minus nine in scoring for the month. Cincinnati pitching has allowed at least five runs in six of the team’s past seven games. Chase Burns is a candidate to break that run, emerging as one of the better starters in the NL this season with a 13-2 record in 22 starts, featuring a 2.61 ERA. His FIP is significantly higher than his ERA however and he has run into some recent trouble, allowing five or more runs three times in his last seven starts with an elevated walk rate in recent weeks. Miami is coming off an ugly loss early on Thursday, but Miami won four of six on the last home stand and the Marlins are just 2.5 games out of the final wild card spot. Sandy Alcantara has regained his 2022 Cy Young form this season with 13 wins and a 3.52 ERA. He has delivered 20 consecutive scoreless innings in his last three starts in three straight Miami wins. Alcantara has also pitched six or more innings in 12 of his last 13 starts, something Burns has done just once in his last five starts. That means a struggling Cincinnati bullpen with a 6.50 ERA in the past five games could be more involved tonight, coming off a demanding game for relivers yesterday. In the past five games Miami has hit .265 with 6.6 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitching while the Reds have hit .162 with 3.1 runs per nine. The Marlins have not been a great road team this season, but the Reds are a losing team at home, and these teams have very different recent momentums overall and from the quality starters on the mound Friday night to open this series.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
