MLB SUNDAY NIGHT O/U DISCOUNTED DEAL
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres
- Release Date
- 08/09/2026 03:25 PM
- Event Date
- 08/09/2026 08:20 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Over 9 (-108)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Draw
- Analysis
- At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (929) and the San Diego Padres (930). THE SITUATION: Houston (60-58) has lost two of their last three games after their 3-2 loss on the road against the Padres on Saturday. San Diego (61-57) has won two of their last three games.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Astros have played 16 of their last 26 road games Over the Total after losing their last game. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games on the road Over the Total. Additionally, they have played 29 of their last 45 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They give the ball to Cristian Javier, who has a 1-2 record with a 6.59 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP in nine appearances (five starts). The right-hander spent most of the first half of the season on the shelf with a right shoulder strain. The deeper sabermetrics call for some regression — but the numbers are still not promising. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.27 and 5.66 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding-independent data, sits at 5.14. He has been more effective at home, where he has a 1.39 WHIP in 13 2/3 innings — but in his 13 2/3 innings on the road, his WHIP rises to 1.98. Last season, Javier had a 3.33 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in five starts at home after his return from Tommy John surgery — but in his three starts on the road, he was saddled with a 7.11 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. He faces a Padres team that ranks 12th and ninth in MLB since June 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created against right-handed pitchers — and they rise to third in both those categories in the last month since July 9th. San Diego has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after winning their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after allowing no more than two runs in their last game. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a money-line underdog or as a money-line favorite priced no higher than -150. The Padres counter with Randy Vasquez, who has a 7-6 record along with a 4.19 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP in 22 games (18 starts). The deeper sabermetrics are screaming regression for the right-hander. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.96 and 5.08 moving forward. His xERA sits at 6.12.
FINAL TAKE: The Padres rank fourth and third in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank fourth in both those categories since July 1st. 10* MLB Sunday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Houston Astros (929) and the San Diego Padres (930). Best of luck for us — Frank.
