TDG’s MLB SUNDAY NIGHT TV TOTAL OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres
- Release Date
- 08/09/2026 02:25 PM
- Event Date
- 08/09/2026 08:20 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Over 9 (-108)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Draw
- Analysis
- Our 25* MLB Sunday Night TV Total of the Month is with the Houston/San Diego over at 8:20 pm et.
The San Diego Padres won for the second time in their previous three games with a 3-2 victory against the Astros on Saturday. The Padres are averaging 5.2 runs per game in the last month with a .270 batting average, a .352 on-base percentage, and a .416 slugging percentage in those 26 games. They should continue to hit against Houston starting pitcher Cristian Javier. The right-hander has a 1-2 record with a 6.59 era and a 1.68 whip in nine games and five starts. In his most recent start, he gave up three earned runs in six innings at home against Toronto on Monday. He only struck out three batters. He made three starts at the beginning of the year before being placed on the injured list with a right shoulder strain. He returned to action on July 4th. In his late-season return from Tommy John surgery last year, he had a 2-4 record with a 4.62 era and a 1.27 whip in eight starts across 37 innings. In his last full season in 2023, he posted a 4.56 era. Houston has played sixteen of their twenty-one games on the road when Javier is their starting pitcher, and the oddsmakers installed them as a money line underdog priced up to +150. San Diego has played three of their previous four games at home over the total, and they have played eleven of their previous seventeen games at home over the number in August.
Houston has played thirty-two of their fifty-two games over the number after losing their previous game. They have played seven of their previous ten games on the road over the total against winning teams. They have played twenty-two of their thirty-seven games on the road over the number when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line underdog priced up to +125 or as a money line favorite priced up to -125. The Astros have also played twenty-three of their thirty-nine games over the total when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 9 or 9.5. In the last month, they are averaging 5.0 runs per game with a .265 batting average, a .350 on-base percentage, and a .442 slugging percentage in those 23 games. In the last week, they are hitting .287 in those six games. They are expected to face the Padres' Randy Vasquez. The right-hander has a 7-6 record with a 4.19 era and a 1.42 whip in twenty-two games and eighteen starts. In his sixteen games at night, he has a 4.54 era and a 1.41 whip. Vasquez is striking out only 15.0% of opposing hitters, ranking in the lowest fifth percentile. Opposing hitters are getting an average exit velocity of 91.4 miles per hour on their batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest three percentile. These hitters are getting a hard hit rate of 95 or higher miles per hour in their batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest ten percentile. These hitters are getting a barrel rate on 11.1% of their batted balls against him, ranking in the lowest eight percentile. The Padres have played five of their seven games over the total in August when Vasquez is their starting pitcher. Play the over.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
