MLB Dog Shocker - Sunday
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals
- Release Date
- 08/09/2026 11:04 AM
- Event Date
- 08/09/2026 02:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Kansas City Royals +145
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Kansas City Royals feel like a very live home underdog to me against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, and that’s before we even consider a price around +140. Chicago is the better team in terms of record, but I feel like this matchup lines up closer than the betting odds are suggesting, and we start with Kansas City starter Randy Dobnak.
Dodnak comes into Sunday at 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA. He’s been incredible since entering the Royals rotation and in his first four starts has allowed just two runs in 21 1/3 innings of work. What’s even more impressive about Dobnak’s performance is that he’s allowed just one earned run over his last 17 innings pitched. This includes seven scoreless against Minnesota and five scoreless against Detroit his last time out. Dobnak isn’t blowing hitters away with strikeouts, but he has thrown plenty of strikes and limited free passes all while forcing hitters to earn everything they get.
This immediately gives Kansas City a chance to keep games in the middle and late innings. Chicago’s Matthew Boyd has been good for the Cubs this season and has particularly strong numbers on the road. However, Boyd had some trouble against the Dodgers in his last outing, allowing five runs (four earned) on nine hits and two home runs. Kansas City doesn’t need to go out and attack Boyd early. If the Royals can muster up three or four runs and Dobnak continues to pitch as he has been, Kansas City should have every chance to win this game.
Kansas City is also catching this game at home where they have been playing their best baseball. The Royals have won 10 of their last 13 games at Kauffman Stadium and are looking to pick up another series win at home on Sunday. That home-field momentum is significant when you’re receiving a juicy plus-money price.
Saturday’s win is also key because it shows Kansas City can indeed finish this job off on Sunday. The Royals didn’t just squeak away with a close victory against Chicago. They pounded Chicago pitching to the tune of 6 runs and plenty of hard contact.
Yes, Chicago is better than Kansas City and Boyd is more than capable of bottling up Kansas City’s offense. But we’re not getting asked to lay odds on the Royals here. We have the chance to receive plus money on a home team catching fire at home with one of its hottest pitchers on the mound along with some big hitters swinging it well. If Dobnak can limit Chicago to two or three runs through five or six innings then Kansas City will have every opportunity to win this outright.
Jim's Play: 926. Royals
