- Analysis
- At 11:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Algeria (225405) minus the goal-line versus Jordan (225406) in Group J action in the 2026 World Cup. THE SITUATION: Algeria (W0-D0-L1) looks to rebound from their 3-0 loss against Argentina in their opening match in the World Cup last Tuesday. Jordan (W0-D0-L1) lost their opening match by a 3-1 score against Austria on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE ALGERIA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Desert Foxes' loss to Lionel Messi and the reigning 2024 World Cup champions looks better this evening than it did late last night when I first broke down this match. As I have mentioned in earlier reports this week, one of the helpful things for these second matches in the group stage of major international tournaments is to assess how earlier results in the day impact the circumstances for the evening contests. Argentina played this afternoon and defeated Austria by a 3-0 score. La Albiceleste generated three Big Chances (defined as a shot with an expected Goal (xG) probability of at least 35%) — and they won the xG battle by a 2.36-0.53 margin against an Austrian side that I think is pretty good. Algeria fared better than that. Successful long-term handicapping requires digging deeper than just the final score. They held Argentina to just 1.26 xG and only one Big Chance. In fact, two of Argentina’s goals came from significant gaffes by goalkeeper Luca Zidane. Maybe it was nerves when being on the pitch with Messi? I am not going to read too much into the son of the legendary player and manager Zinedine Zidane. Sure, he is facing immense pressure as his son, but it was a coup for the Algerian national team when he switched allegiance from France to become their number one goalie. If Austria beats this Jordan side by two goals, then the recent comparative results against Argentina suggest that the Desert Foxes can also defeat them by multiple goals. I looked closely at the Over — but I am just too impressed by les Fennecs limiting Messi and company to just 1.26 xG and just one Big Chance (and I am not surprised that Argentina scored three times because Messi is the literal outlier when assembling the expected goal data from all the shots taken on the pitch). Algeria had three clean sheets in their five matches in the 2025 African Cup that concluded in January — I want to get paid if they win by a 2-0 score tonight. My Final Take explains why I think laying the -1 goal-line is the preferable route to profit from this match. The Desert Foxes roster is not littered with world-class talent — but it is a solid group. One exception to that assessment is left back Rayan Air-Nouri, who stars in the English Premier League for Manchester City. Their captain is a familiar name, midfielder Riyad Mahrez, who helped lead Leicester City to their Cinderella EPL-winning campaign a decade ago. He later had lots of success with Man City. The rest of the roster consists of players who are employed professionally in Europe or the Middle East. They came into this event with confidence on W7-D1-L1 and W13-D2-L2 runs. They dominated their World Cup qualifying stage with an W8-D1-L1 run. They lost in the quarterfinals to Nigeria in the AFCON in January. The underlying metrics against Argentina do not appear to be a fluke when considering they beat the Netherlands by a 1- score in a friendly 19 days ago. They also held Uruguay to a nil-nil draw in a friendly on March 31st. They rank 28th in the world by FIFA, which is right around the 29th slot they hold in the ELO ranking system, used for the global rankings in chess, that privileges actual results versus expected results while measuring the quality of opposition. In Nate Silver’s new PELE rankings, a revision of his Soccer Power Index he developed last decade at his quantitative predictions website (including his election projections), the Desert Foxes rank 30th. On the other hand, Jordan ranks 65th, 52nd, and 69th in the FIFA, ELO, and PELE rankings, respectively. I suspect they may just be happy to be here playing in their first World Cup. Jordan did recently lose in the finals of the Arab Cup in December against a very good Morocco national team by a 3-2 score — but their best players like Paris Saint-Germain fullback Achraf Hakimi and Real Madrid striker Brahim Diaz were still playing for their professional clubs before taking a break to play for their national team at the African Cup in late December. That final score needs to be taken with a grain of salt, as does their 3-0 win against Egypt in the group stage since Mohamed Saleh was still playing for Liverpool at the time (before joining Egypt for the AFCON later that month). Al Nashama only has two players who play club football in Europe. To compound matters, they have to play this tournament with center forward Yazan Al-Naimat, who suffered an ACL tear. He led the team with eight goals in the qualification stage. Jordan failed to score in four of their 16 qualifying matches. In their two most recent friendlies in late May and early June, they lost to Colombia by a 2-0 score and to Switzerland by a 4-1 score. Their 3-2 loss to Tunisia in a friendly last November has not aged well since the Eagles of Carthage just fired their manager after their opening match loss in the World Cup — and their 4-0 loss to Japan late Saturday night only furthers that assessment. Jordan has conceded nine goals in their last three matches against opponents who qualified for the World Cup. They scored in the 50th minute against Das Team — but they generated only 0.46 xG and did not have a Big Chance.
FINAL TAKE: This is a must-win match for both sides — so neither side will settle for a draw. I think a victory by multiple goals for Algeria is the most likely outcome (and we can live with the push, which would have been very nice last night with New Zealand after their 1-0 halftime lead). The Desert Foxes tend to dominate lesser competition. They scored 24 goals in their 10 World Cup qualifying matches. Eight of their last 11 victories and 10 of their last 14 wins have been by more than one goal — so when they win, they usually do so in style. Jordan, the Chivalrous Ones, seems to have taken advantage of their subpar competition (and diminished rosters) in the 2025 Arab Cup and their World Cup qualifying matches. Lastly, given that they are currently in last place in their group because of their -3 net goal differential, they are incentivized to potentially run up the score. 25* World Cup Group J Match of the Year with Algeria (225405) minus the goal-line versus Jordan (225406). Best of luck for us — Frank.
