MLB MONDAY NIGHT DISCOUNTED DEAL
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals
- Release Date
- 06/22/2026 07:36 PM
- Event Date
- 06/22/2026 07:45 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
St. Louis Cardinals -144
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 7:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907), listing both starting pitchers, Andre Pallante and Merrill Kelly. THE SITUATION: St. Louis (41-34) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 12-10 victory at Kansas City on Sunday. Arizona (39-38) has lost two games in a row after their 6-2 loss at home against Minnesota yesterday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: St. Louis opened as a money-line favorite in the -145 range — and that price has not budged much today. With the money-line price below my -150 price threshold, let’s attack. The Cardinals have won 6 of their last 9 games after winning their last contest. After completing their three-game road trip in Kansas City, they return home, where they have won 10 of their last 14 games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also won 8 of their last 11 home games when priced as a money-line favorite at -110 or higher. Andre Pallante gets the ball for St. Louis tonight. The right-hander has an 8-4 record with a 3.76 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 14 starts. He is pitching surprisingly well after limiting San Diego to just two earned runs in seven innings last Tuesday. It was the fifth time in his last six starts that he had not allowed more than two earned runs. He has a 2.89 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in his last six starts — and he enjoys a 2.41 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in his previous three starts. The deeper sabermetrics validate his breakout season. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding-independent data, sits at 3.68. He should pitch well against this Diamondbacks team that ranks 28th in MLB in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers — and they rank 27th in both those categories since May 1st. Arizona has lost 18 of their last 27 road games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 5 of their last 7 games on the road after losing two or more games in a row. They have also lost 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range — and they have lost 17 of their last 27 road games when priced as a money-line underdog. They counter with Merrill Kelly, who has a 5-6 record with a 5.81 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 12 starts. The underlying sabermetrics do not paint a rosy picture. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 5.39 and 5.36 moving forward. His xERA 7.48 suggests things could be even worse. Alas, in his last three starts, he has been saddled with an 8.28 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals rank sixth and seventh in MLB this season in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created at home against right-handed starting pitchers — and they rank seventh in both those categories since May 1st. 10* MLB Monday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the St. Louis Cardinals (908) versus the Arizona Diamondbacks (907) listing both starting pitchers, Andre Pallante and Merrill Kelly. Best of luck for us — Frank.
