MLB Run Line Rout - Monday
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Release Date
- 06/22/2026 12:47 PM
- Event Date
- 06/22/2026 06:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Run Line
- Pick
-
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+115)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Tampa Bay’s home-road split and favorable offensive numbers all support Tampa Bay laying the run line. Tampa’s starter Drew Rasmussen is listed opposite Kansas City’s Michael Wacha and Rasmussen has been the superior arm by a wide margin. Through Monday morning, Rasmussen sports a 6-3 record with a 2.59 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, while Wacha owns a 4-5 record with a 3.64 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Wacha is also in a seven-start winless streak (0-3) while also having a 4.93 ERA in nine career starts versus the Rays. Tampa Bay is also 26-10 at home while Kansas City has posted a merely mediocre 13-24 record on the road, which is exactly the kind of split you want to see when laying the extra run and a half.
Tampa Bay also owns the superior overall profile coming into this matchup. Tampa Bay with a better team ERA (3.91 vs. 4.58), team WHIP (1.23 vs. 1.39), opponent batting average (.238 vs. .254), and opponent on-base percentage (.334 vs. .321). Sure Kansas City has crushed more home runs as a team, but Tampa Bay has been the cleaner team overall throughout the season. That tends to matter more when betting on a favorite to cover by multiple runs.
Perhaps the biggest reason to take Tampa Bay here though is some solid underlying form behind Rasmussen. On June 10 he struck out a career-high 13 batters over seven scoreless frames against Boston. That describes his overall season as well. If Tampa can get that version of Rasmussen for six or seven innings Kansas City might not have enough consistent offense to hang with them, especially if Bobby Witt Jr. isn’t at 100 percent again after being listed as day-to-day with a Grade 1 MCL sprain in his right knee. Tampa has the better starter, a significantly better home field advantage and the more trustworthy team stats to separate.
Jim's Play: 914. Rays -1.5 Runs
