Nelly’s Monday NL Total Knockout 62% RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals
- Release Date
- 06/22/2026 08:48 AM
- Event Date
- 06/22/2026 07:45 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals Over 8.5 (-110)
(Consensus Line)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Cardinals managed to avoid getting swept in Kansas City, posting 12 runs Sunday for a high-scoring win. St. Louis has scored at least four runs seven times in the past 10 games, but the Cardinals have allowed five or more runs in eight of those 10 games. In the past five games St. Louis has hit .303 with 5.7 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitching and Merrill Kelly has struggled all season for the Diamondbacks. An effective option for Arizona over the past few years, Kelly has a 5.81 ERA with a 5.99 FIP this season. His strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff, down to 5.3 compared to 8.2 last season and 9.5 in his strong 2023 season on the way to the NL pennant. Kelly has allowed 21 hits and 15 runs in his three June starts and he has allowed 15 home runs in 12 starts. Arizona lost two of three hosting Minnesota over the weekend, and the Diamondbacks have allowed 33 runs in the past five games with brutal recent bullpen results and a strained pitching staff with top starter Michael Soroka injured after one inning on Friday. Both teams have a bullpen ERA approaching 6.00 over the past five games and Andre Pallante has pitched over his head in 14 starts in 2026. Pallante was one of the worst regular starters in the NL last season finishing with a 5.31 ERA in 31 starts, going 6-15 in decisions. This season he is 8-4 even with a FIP that isn’t much lower than last season. A much lower BABIP and a much higher strand rate has kept Pallante’s ERA down to 3.76 in his 14 starts this season, even with a marginal strikeout rate and the lowest groundball rate of his career. Pallante has a 4.53 ERA at Busch Stadium however and the ‘over’ has hit in three of his last four starts as he has received good run support. Weather conditions should be relatively neutral in St. Louis Monday night, but it seems likely that the offenses will have the edge with two marginal starters and strained and struggling bullpens heading into this series.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
