- Analysis
- At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between New Zealand (225277) and Iran (225278) in Group G action in the 2026 World Cup. THE SITUATION: New Zealand (W0-D0-L0) qualified for the expanded 48-team World Cup by winning the first automatic bid offered to the Oceania Football Confederation by winning all five of those matches. Iran (W0-D0-L0) won their World Cup qualification group with a W11-D4-L1 mark. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I am not expecting the Iranian offensive attack to be that dynamic in this match. For starters, we need to consider the impact of the travel schedule being imposed on Team Melli by one of the host nations. For all their matches taking place in the United States, Iran is only being allowed to travel inside the country the day of the match, and they are required to exit the country once the match is over. These are far from ideal competitive circumstances, emotionally and physically. Iran has competed in the last three World Cups. Under previous manager Carlos Queiroz, their style of play was to be solid with no frills while bypassing an expansive or attacking approach. In the 2022 World Cup, Team Melli did not advance to the Knockout Stage after losing two of their three matches. They got thumped by England by a 6-2 score — and their two goals were scored in the second half after trailing 4-0 in the 65th minute and then in the final moments of the 13th minute of added stoppage time — so the game script impacted the change of tactics. Then, in their 2-0 win against Wales, both their goals were scored after the Welsh were down to ten players because of a red card. In their crucial third match against the USMNT, that was a low-scoring affair which they lost by a 1-0 score. It was after this World Cup that the national team turned to Amir Ghalenoei as their next manager. At the 2023 Asian Cup, Iran held their nine opponents to just eight combined goals — and they had three clean sheets. In their 16 World Cup qualifying matches, they only gave up 12 goals (0.75 Goals Allowed per match) with nine clean sheets. In their three friendlies this year, Team Melli allowed only one goal. Ghalenoei has been criticized for the run-up to the World Cup for not beginning the transition to a younger roster. Led by striker Mehdi Taremi, many of the core group of players on this team are playing in their third World Cup since 2018. Ghalenoie’s back line is very experienced. Given these roster choices, it seems evident his formula for success is to play tight defense and rely on Taremi to score goals in the counter-attack. Team Melli’s injury situation does not help their cause if they wanted to get more aggressive in attack. Captain Ali Jahanbakhsh is out, which takes away a longtime fixture in their attack from the midfield. Dennis Eckert, who switched his national allegiance from Germany, is also out, which takes away another attacking option. New Zealand lacks star power outside Nottingham Forest striker Chris Wood — but they can make up for this with team cohesion. The roster consists of ten players who play professionally in the A-League. Many of the players on the roster had previously played for manager Darren Bazeley, who cut his teeth coaching development teams in the New Zealand national program. The Kiwis conceded only one goal in their five World Cup qualification matches. In their last 11 matches across all competitions, they have only conceded 14 goals. But they have scored only six goals in those 11 matches — and they got blanked in six of their last nine matches over that stretch. Four of those six goals were in their match against Chile on March 30th — so they only scored two combined goals in their other ten matches.
FINAL TAKE: Belgium is the favorite in Group G — but after their draw with Egypt this afternoon, it is wide open to win this group. Both sides would love to win this match — but they could live with a draw, since losing the match would be devastating given these other results. On paper, both these teams had prolific goal-scoring numbers in their World Cup qualifiers. New Zealand scored 29 goals in their five matches, and Iran scored 35 times in their 16 matches — but keep in mind that their groups consist of mostly minnows on the world stage. Both sides play differently against better competition. In their 1-0 loss to England in their most recent friendly on June 6th, the Kiwis only generated 0.34 expected Goals. Despite the distractions, Iran will play hard in Los Angeles, which is the most populated city in the world by Iranians outside Iran. This should be a low-scoring, cagey affair between two squads with Knockout Stage aspirations. 20* World Cup New Zealand-Iran FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between New Zealand (225277) and Iran (225278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
