Nelly’s Monday Total Knockout 7-1 MLB RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics
- Release Date
- 06/15/2026 07:20 AM
- Event Date
- 06/15/2026 09:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics Over 10.5 (-110)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- The Athletics won four of six games in the Las Vegas homestand, but the pitching staff allowed 55 runs in those six games including surrendering 23 runs on Sunday. Moving back to Sacramento will downgrade the offensive potential but in the past six home games in Sacramento the Athletics allowed a combined 47 runs with at least four runs allowed in each of the team’s past eight games at Sutter Health. It will be hot Monday night as Pittsburgh visits with a significant wind pushing out to left center field for favorable conditions for offense. The Pirates lost again with Paul Skenes on the mound on Sunday and Pittsburgh pitching has allowed six or more runs in six of the past nine games. In the past five games the Pirates have had a 7.08 bullpen ERA with a 1.82 WHIP for even worse numbers than the Athletics have in the recent bullpen splits, even after Athletics relievers allowed 15 runs yesterday. Jared Jones has only made three starts this season working his way up the ranks after missing all of 2025 due to injury. Jones has a 4.73 ERA in his three starts and in his 135 career innings he owns a 1.3 HR/9 with flyball tendencies that could be problematic in these conditions. For the Athletics J.T. Ginn has great results in his road innings this season but in his home starts he owns a 4.70 ERA with opponents batting .280 against him. Walks are an issue for Ginn and his FIP of 4.17 is more than a run higher than his 3.15 ERA. Both offenses have hit successfully in recent splits vs. right-handed pitching and Pittsburgh has been a strong ‘over’ team at 41-29-2 despite the high profile rotation. Expect the high scoring surge for Athletics games to continue even in the move away from Las Vegas.
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