- Analysis
- I like the Cleveland Guardians on the road tonight at the KC Royals. Cleveland is getting the better starter on paper. Gavin Williams (5-1, 2.70 ERA, 53 strikeouts) is on the bump for Cleveland, while Kansas City should counter with Stephen Kolek (2-2, 4.79 ERA, 1.61 WHIP) according to the matchup data. Cleveland holds the clear edge in starting pitching, especially if Williams can pound guys in early-counts and prevent Kansas City from stringing hits together into big innings.
The Guardians also have a bit of a bounce-back angle coming into tonight’s game, having lost the opener of this series 6-2. Cleveland scored early thanks to a David Fry two-run homer, but Kansas City took over once the game started shifting around in the middle innings. Cleveland will look to strike back here, and with Williams on the mound, this matchup presents the better opportunity for the Guardians to establish tempo from the get-go.
Offensively, Cleveland will not necessarily need a huge night to pick up the win. The Guardians can play small ball against a Kansas City starter who may lack command due to traffic concerns, grind out at-bats, manufacture runs, and get the Royals bullpen working deep into the game. Jose Ramirez is the Guardians’ biggest threat when it comes to power and run-production, but Cleveland at its best pressures opponents with contact, walks, and scrappy baserunning.
Kansas City is playing well, having won four of their last five games and nine of 12 overall, but Cleveland should be able to lean on their starting pitching advantage in this spot. If Williams can go five or six strong innings, the Guardians can shorten this game and find themselves in position to win late. Kansas City did absolutely blow this game open on one big inning in the opener, but Cleveland has a better chance of limiting those crooked numbers here.
Jim's Play: 917. Guardians (AL Central Game of the Month)
