- Analysis
- At 7:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Charlotte Hornets (573) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (574) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Charlotte (45-38) has won two games in a row after their 127-126 victory against Miami as a 5.5-point favorite in their first Play-In Tournament game on Tuesday. Orlando (45-38) has lost two games in a row after their 107-97 loss at Philadelphia as a 1.5-point underdog in their Play-In Tournament game on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNETS MINUS THE POINTS: These are two divisional rivals moving in opposite directions. In handicapping this game, I became worried that it was too easy to back Charlotte — and I was missing something. I addressed this in my Final Take. Charlotte has been the biggest surprise in the NBA this season after only winning 19 games last year. Since January 2nd, they have a 34-15 record. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 games. LeMelo Ball is thriving. Brandon Miller is finally healthy. Don Knueppel has met every expectation — and his 3-point shooting allows this team to excel in the modern game that emphasizes shooting from behind the arc. The Hornets play at the second slowest pace in the league — but their efficiency should not be dismissed when it comes to their scoring output tonight. They rank fifth in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Since the All-Star break, they lead the league by nailing 18.3 shots from behind the arc per game. Since returning from the break, they rank second in the NBA with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 121.8. They also rank seventh in the league during that span with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 110.6. For the season, their average winning margin of +4.7 Points-Per-Game equates with a 53-win team in the regular season (e.g., the New York Knicks). When compared to the Magic, they shoot more 3s, they make more 3s, they shoot the ball better, they defend better, they rebound better, and they foul less. Charlotte has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against Orlando — and they have beaten them three times in a row this season by an average winning margin of +20.3 PPG. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a straight-up win at home, including five of those six games after beating a fellow Southeast Division rival. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a win by six points or less, including four of those five games this season. This is Charlotte’s sixth game since April 4th — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days, including six of those seven games on the road. The Hornets have covered the point spread in 24 of their 41 games on the road this season. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games against teams that are winning 51-60% of their games, including six of those nine games on the road. Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games when playing for the second time in five days, including six of those nine games played at home. The Magic’s players seem to have lost faith in head coach Jamahl Mosley. They are finding ways to lose too many games. Since the All-Star break, they rank just 15th in the league with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 115.3. During that span, they rank 12th in the NBA with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 112.9. Their Adjusted Net Efficiency of +2.4 since the break pales in comparison to the +11.1 Adjusted Net Efficiency during that span. Paolo Banchero has missed at least 15 shots in two straight games — and he has committed six turnovers in each of those contests. Banchero is a defensive liability — so if he is not performing well on the other end of the court, he is only hurting the team. Orlando has a 9-21 record with an Adjusted Net Efficiency of -3.1 when playing teams that rank in the top ten in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. And while the Hornets outrebound their opponents by +6.8 Rebounds-Per-Game, the Magic have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a +3.0 or better RPG margin.
FINAL TAKE: My worries about it being too easy to take the Hornets — and that I have a blind spot somewhere — are allayed by a few Play-In Tournament trends. Teams at home for the second Play-In Tournament game have won and covered the point spread in 5 of those last 6 games. The Magic entered this event as the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference — and eighth seeds in the Play-In Tournament have covered the point spread in 10 of their 13 games. The loser in the seventh versus eighth seed matchup in the Play-In Tournament has then won and covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 second play-in games. While the sample size is still small, there are plenty of reasons why investing in Charlotte is not a slam dunk. But I am persuaded by the fact that favorites in the second play-in game in this event have won and covered the point spread in 8 straight games. That trend helps me trust my qualitative assessments of both teams. 25* NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year with the Charlotte Hornets (573) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.
