Nelly’s Friday Night NL Knockout 31-18 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins
- Release Date
- 04/17/2026 07:44 AM
- Event Date
- 04/17/2026 07:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Miami Marlins -115
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Marlins lost five of the last six to fall to 9-10 on the season, coming off going 1-5 in an awkward road trip going from Detroit to Atlanta last week. An off day Thursday should help the team regroup and the Marlins have a positive scoring differential on the season while 7-3 at home. Milwaukee has scored 91 runs in 18 games this season, but the Brewers scored 68 runs in the first 10 games in an 8-2 start. Milwaukee is 2-6 since with only a pair of fortunate one-run results the past two days preventing an eight-game slide, with the Brewers averaging fewer than 2.9 runs per game in that span. Injuries have hit Milwaukee hard with three of the team’s best offensive players currently on the IL while the bullpen is shorthanded and mostly struggling. Milwaukee has received winning efforts from the bullpen the past two days in matching 2-1 results, but the workload has been significant, and the Brewers don’t get the off day ahead of this series like Miami has. With Kyle Harrison battling an injury his rotation spot is to be skipped this weekend while Quinn Priester is also on the IL as Milwaukee has not yet announced a starter Friday. Aaron Ashby or Angel Zerpa could open this game, though both threw yesterday out of the bullpen. Coleman Crow is a possibility to make his MLB debut tonight as the primary pitcher on the mound though it will be a big leap, as Crow has appeared in just five AAA games the past two seasons. He had a 7.71 ERA in a short AAA sample last season and has a 4.02 ERA this season in nearly 16 innings. This season. Crow was a 28th round pick in 2019 and remains a bit of a project at age 25, as jumping into immediate MLB success seems unlikely and the bullpen for the Brewers is severely strained right now. For the Marlins Janson Junk is a capable option. Junk doesn’t generate big strikeout counts but he has posted very low walk and home runs rates since joining the Marlins last season. Junk made five appearances for the Brewers in 2024 and in his career splits, he has been a strong early season pitcher with a 3.71 career ERA before the All-Star Break. Milwaukee’s 10-8 start includes only three road wins, and the Brewers have hit just .220 the past 10 games vs. right-handers. Miami has one of the best bullpens in baseball in the early season numbers with a 3.30 ERA while holding opponents to a .182 batting average and the off day should heighten that advantage for the Marlins in the series opener Friday.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
