Nelly’s Friday NBA Play-In Winner 6-2 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Charlotte Hornets vs Orlando Magic
- Release Date
- 04/17/2026 07:23 AM
- Event Date
- 04/17/2026 07:30 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Orlando Magic +3.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Orlando beat Charlotte 123-107 in October on the road, but the Magic have lost the past three meetings between these Southwest division foes, with each of those defeats by at least 15 points. Orlando will host this elimination game for the #8 spot and a series with the Pistons with the Magic unable to hang with Philadelphia on Wednesday, while Charlotte won in an absolute thriller hosting Miami on Tuesday. The Hornets have not made the playoffs since 2016 as they were play-in losers in both 2021 and 2022 and the franchise has never actually won a playoff series as this is the Bobcats franchise that started in 2004-05, while the original Hornets are now the Pelicans. That history has made the now 29-10 run for Charlotte since late January a great storyline. Charlotte has been just 9-11 ATS since early March however, including a 2-4 ATS run as a road favorite. The Magic are 7-5 ATS as a home underdog this season and the only teams since January that have been this big of a favorite in Orlando since January are the Pistons, Cavaliers, and Thunder. The line was flipped with the Magic -3.5 when these teams last met at the Kia Center in January. Charlotte won and covered in both games in Orlando this season but is just 4-7 ATS on the road in this series in the past 11 visits. Orlando is the stronger 3-point defense in this pairing and while Charlotte’s defense has been the key to the turnaround, the Hornets rarely force turnovers and have kept opponents to lower scoring results by allowing the fewest free throw attempts in the NBA. This line looks over adjusted relative to the regular season valuations and Charlotte’s high-profile dramatic win over Miami boosts interest in the Hornets even further. Charlotte faced the #28 strength of schedule this season while Orlando drew a top 10 path as the success for the Hornets in the second half of the season was partially driven by an unbalanced schedule. Given Charlotte’s ATS darling status, this line has climbed since opening, and a tight finish can still be expected with Orlando not getting enough credit for a 25-15 S/U home record with winning ATS results as a home underdog.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
