NBA WEDNESDAY LATE SHOW O/U BAILOUT
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz
- Release Date
- 04/01/2026 07:49 PM
- Event Date
- 04/01/2026 09:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz Over 249.5 (-110)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 9:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (529) and the Utah Jazz (530). THE SITUATION: Denver (48-28) has won six games in a row after their 116-93 victory against Golden State as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday. Utah (21-55) has lost six games in a row after a 122-113 loss at home against Cleveland as a 16.5-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Denver is as healthy as they have been all season with Peyton Watson’s recent return from injury. The Nuggets lead the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they are scoring 128 points per 100 adjusted possessions during their six-game winning streak. They are scoring 121.3 Points-Per-Game this season — and they up that number to 126.8 PPG against fellow Northwest Division rivals. They are also nailing 51.7% of their shots in the last two weeks which is resulting in 126.4 PPG. They have won nine of their last 11 contests during a stretch where they are making over 40% of their shots from behind the arc. Now they play a Jazz team that plays the worst defense in the league, including allowing their opponents to take 45.6% of their shots from behind the arc, which is the worst mark in the NBA in the last five seasons. Denver has played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a straight-up win, including 8 of those 11 games played on the road. They have also played 4 straight road games Over the Total when playing for the second time in five days. On the road, they have played 28 of their 39 games Over the Total this season, including 12 of their last 13 contests. They have played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total on the road when favored. Additionally, they have played 19 of their last 27 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set at 240 or higher. They have played 11 of their last 18 games Over the Total when laying double-digits. The Jazz are scoring 117.3 PPG — and the Nuggets have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams who are scoring 116 or more PPG. Furthermore, they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40% range, including 7 of those 10 games on the road. Utah is fully in the tank, having won just three times since the All-Star break. After getting penalized by the league for being too obvious in their efforts to qualify for the most ping-pong balls for the draft lottery, general manager Danny Ainge solved that problem by assembling a roster of healthy players who are terrible at playing defense. Not only are they last in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, their inefficiencies are also historic in nature. The +6.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions they are surrendering versus the league average is the worst discrepancy in the last seven seasons. They rank 27th in half-court defense — and they are last in transition defense, where they are also giving up the most transition scoring opportunities. Their opponents are making a league-worst 61.8% of their shots in the paint, a stat that should have Nikola Jokic drooling. Their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 57.6% would be second-worst in NBA history. The Jazz are last in opponent shot quality allowed, as well. Despite all this, the Cavaliers only made 18.8% of their shots from behind the arc against them on Monday, which was the second-lowest mark that Utah has allowed all season. That performance probably speaks more about Cleveland that night — and Utah has played 10 of their last 14 games at home Over the Total after losing at home in their last game. They stay at home where they are scoring 120.7 PPG — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total. They have also played 24 of their last 33 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 230 or higher — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the Total set at 239.5. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 19 home games Over the Total against teams that score 116 or more PPG. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 60-70% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on March 27th in Denver with the Nuggets winning by a 135-129 score. Utah has played 22 of the last 30 home games Over the Total when playing with revenge. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (529) and the Utah Jazz (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
