TDG’s NCAA-B CROWN QUARTERFINALS GAME OF YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Baylor vs Minnesota
- Release Date
- 04/01/2026 05:39 PM
- Event Date
- 04/01/2026 11:12 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Baylor -3.5 (-118)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* NCAA-B College Basketball Crown Quarterfinals Game of the Year is on Baylor minus the points versus Minnesota at 10:30 pm et.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers finished 8-12 in the Big Ten regular season before exiting in the conference tournament in their opening game, a 72-67 upset loss against Rutgers as a 6.5-point favorite, on March 11th. The Golden Gophers were a tough team to play at home at Williams Arena, where they posted a 13-8 record. Yet they were just 2-9 away from home this year with a -9.5 net point differential. The only two teams that Minnesota beat away from home were Oregon and Northwestern, who both finished under .500 and combined for a 27-39 record. The Golden Gophers are not a good scoring team. They rank 86th in the country in offensive efficiency. They average 70.0 points per game on 46.0% shooting and a 34.7% mark from 3-point range. On the road, those numbers decline to 64.7 points per game on 42.7% shooting and a 29.8% clip from 3-point land. In the last month, their scoring has dipped to 60.3 points per game. Minnesota’s defensive play was not nearly as good as it was when they were playing at home. For the year, they gave up 68.5 points per game on 44.6% shooting and a 34.7% mark from the 3-point line. On the road, their opponents are averaging 74.2 points per game on 49.6% shooting and a 36.3% clip from 3-point land. In the last month, their opponents are averaging 71.7 points per game on 49.1% shooting and a 40.0% mark from 3-point range. The Golden Gophers have not covered the point spread in eight straight games played on a neutral court, including all four of those games played this season under first-year head coach Niko Medved. The former Colorado State head coach did not have a great track record with the Rams when playing on a neutral court. In the twenty-nine games in his head coaching career on a neutral court when the oddsmakers installed his team as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick em, his teams covered the point spread only ten times. Medved’s preferred style can lead to trouble when playing on the road when his team’s shots are not falling. The Golden Gophers were last in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding. They only forced turnovers in 15.7% of their opponents’ possessions, below the national defensive turnover rate average of 16.7%. Minnesota covered the point spread in only four of their eleven non-conference games this year. Medved’s teams in his head coaching career have covered the point spread in only eight of the twenty-four games after his team got upset by a conference opponent.
Baylor opened the season with a 10-2 record in non-conference play with an impressive victory against San Diego State. They struggled in the Big 12 with a 6-12 record, yet they did defeat Central Florida, which made the NCAA tournament. The Bears last played on March 10th when they got eliminated in the Big 12 tournament in an 83-79 upset loss against Arizona State as a 5.5-point favorite. Head coach Scott Drew has been reliable in getting his team prepared to play after losses, as Baylor has covered the point spread in seven of their previous eleven games on the road after losing their previous game, and they have covered the point spread in five of their previous eight games on the road after a loss to a conference opponent. The Bears have covered the point spread in nineteen of their thirty games with Drew as their head coach when getting seven or more days of rest and preparation. Baylor is an excellent offensive team that ranked twenty-fifth in efficiency. Their offensive rebounding rate of 37.5% is the 13th best in the country. The Golden Gophers were 11th in the Big Ten with a defensive rebounding rate of 31.1%. The Bears lost their most recent non-conference game against Louisville in February, yet they carried a +18.2 net point differential with their 10-3 record in non-conference play. They averaged 93.7 points per game on 51.0% shooting in those games. Baylor had made the NCAA tournament in twelve straight seasons before this year. Drew led them to a national championship five years ago. He will value the experience of this postseason tournament in Las Vegas to begin building to return to the NCAA tournament next year. While three important players opted out for Colorado, who is playing in the earlier game tonight in this tournament, Drew has his full squad. His Bears’ teams have covered the point spread in thirty-four of their fifty-six games played on a neutral court when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick em, and they have covered the point spread in four of those five games in the last two years. Play Baylor minus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
