NCAA Crown Tourney Game of the Day-Wednesday
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Baylor vs Minnesota
- Release Date
- 03/31/2026 10:02 PM
- Event Date
- 04/01/2026 11:12 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Minnesota +3.5 (-105)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Minnesota opens as a live dog and solid play against the spread because the number is short. Baylor opens as a 3.5-point favorite and they do not need to win this game outright. The Gophers simply need to keep this game within one possession late to cover and that certainly feels attainable here.
Minnesota against the spread starts with Baylor’s defense, or lack thereof. Baylor putting up over 82 points per game but only ranked 268th in the country in scoring defense at over 77 points allowed per game. That style of profile often leads to favorites being upset in March Madness because they give up so many opportunities for opponents to stick around for the full 40 minutes, even if they’re putting points on the board.
Fox also highlighted how Baylor failed to defeat a single NCAA Tournament team all season long. Admittedly, head-to-head results are not the end-all, be-all, but it does factor into how Minnesota covers the spread here because it shows the Bears struggled when they had to elevate their games. It will be a postseason game on a neutral court, so laying points with a Baylor team that struggled against good teams all year feels like a risky play. Minnesota does not have to outplay Baylor to cover the spread. They simply need to be good enough to exploit the Bears’ defensive struggles and hit on their fair share of opportunities.
Minnesota keeping Baylor under 70 points feels like the cleanest path to covering the spread. It will force Baylor to defend in the half court, allowing the Gophers to dictate the pace of play late. Baylor can score with anyone, but they also have the defense that Minnesota can attack over and over again. That’s why I like Minnesota +3.5 here tonight.
Jim's Play: 894. Minnesota
