25* CBB BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE YEAR!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Purdue vs Michigan
- Release Date
- 03/15/2026 12:03 PM
- Event Date
- 03/15/2026 03:32 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Purdue vs Michigan Under 150.5 (-110)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (649) and the Michigan Wolverines (650) in the championship game of the Big Ten Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (25-8) has won three games in a row after their 73-66 victory against UCLA as a 7.5-point favorite in the semifinals of this tournament yesterday. Michigan (30-2) has won six games in a row after a 68-65 victory against Wisconsin as a 12.5-point favorite in their semifinal contest yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Boilermakers have played 9 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total after winning three games in a row. And in their previous three games when playing with one day or less of rest this season, all 3 of those games finished Under the Total. The dirty little secret for head coach Matt Painter’s team this season was that their defensive play took a step or two backwards when playing at home. But when on the road, Purdue is surrendering -7.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions, which is the 22nd best improvement in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when compared to home split stats. They rank 36th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they rise to 12th in that metric when playing on the road. The Boilermakers have played 11 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 13 of their last 20 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Painter typically has his teams play at a slow pace — and usually his teams are able to control tempo. They average 18.6 seconds per possession, which is the 63rd slowest rate of the 365 teams in Division I. They also frustrate their opponents by forcing them to take 18.3 seconds per possession, the 36th longest mark in the nation — and this is one of my favorite metrics that point to Unders. Overall, the Boilermakers’ games average only 64.6 adjusted possessions per game, the 44th fewest in the nation. Michigan survived Wisconsin despite allowing them to make 42.1% of their shots from behind the arc in what was the worst perimeter defensive effort in their last 18 contests. The Wolverines rank 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to 30.2% shooting from behind the arc. Michigan has played 14 of their last 2 games Under the Total after a straight-up win, including 8 of those 11 games played on the road. And while they have not covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total since Dusty May took over as their head coach last season. The Wolverines only made 32.0% of their shots from behind the arc yesterday — and that came on the heels of a 29.4% shooting percentage from distance in their other game in this tournament against Ohio State. The season-ending injury to sophomore guard L.J. Cason at the end of February should not be underestimated. He was a spark plug scorer coming off the bench who was nailing 40.2% of his 3-pointers. In his eight games in February, he was scoring 11.8 PPG coming off the bench. In their five games this month without Cason, the Wolverines have scored more than 71 points only once. On the road, they are scoring -3.4 fewer points per 100 adjusted possession, the 254th worst drop relative to home split stats. The Wolverines have played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road. But the Michigan defense remains elite as they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they maintain that ranking when playing on the road. They rank in the top 12 in both 3-point and 2-point defense. Led by 7’3 junior Aday Mara, the Wolverines rank third in the nation with a block rate of 16.3% of their opponents' shots. And while May wants his team to play at a fast pace, Michigan can get sucked into rock fights — especially given their stout defense that makes their opponents take 18.2 seconds per possession, the 42nd slowest rate in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan has played 11 of their 13 games Under the Total against teams that are winning 60-80% of their games, including 8 of those 9 games played on the road. Additionally, they have played 5 of their 7 games on a neutral court this season Under the Total. Purdue has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing on neutral courts, including five of those six games this season. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. While the Wolverines are outscoring their opponents by +18.4 Points-Per-Game, Purdue has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams that are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (649) and the Michigan Wolverines (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.
