TDG’s NCAA-B CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Dayton vs Va Commonwealth
- Release Date
- 03/15/2026 11:11 AM
- Event Date
- 03/15/2026 01:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Va Commonwealth -3.5 (-107)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* NCAA-B Atlantic 10 Game of the Year is on VCU minus the points versus Dayton at 1:00 pm et.
The VCU Rams reached the finals of the Atlantic 10 tournament with a 77-64 victory against St. Joseph’s in their semifinal showdown yesterday. The Rams have won five games in a row and fifteen of their previous sixteen games. We had the under in that game, and VCU held the Hawks to 38.8% shooting in the victory. Those results continued the steady improvement on defense for first-year head coach Phil Martelli, Jr. The Rams are giving up 71.8 points per game on 43.1% shooting this year. In the previous two months, they have held their opponents to 69.0 points per game on 42.2% shooting. VCU is averaging 81.9 points per game on 46.2% shooting, and their shooting does not drop off much at all away from home, where they are making 46.0% of their shots. The Rams rank 14th in the nation in offensive free throw rate. That has helped them cover the point spread in five straight games on the road against opponents with a winning percentage in the 60%-80% range. They have covered the point spread in seven of their previous eleven games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite. They have covered the point spread in eleven of their previous sixteen games when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 130 to 139.5. VCU has also covered the point spread in four games in a row on a neutral court when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick em. They have covered three of their four games this year on a neutral court when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite or a pick em.’
Dayton pulled off a 70-69 upset victory against St. Louis as a 4.5-point underdog yesterday to advance to the championship game of this tournament. The Flyers won that game despite only making 34.5% of their shots. Dayton averages 74.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting, yet on the road, their scoring average dips to 70.6 points per game. They are giving up 69.9 points per game on 43.7% shooting, yet on the road, those numbers rise to 74.5 points per game on 44.6% shooting. Their defensive numbers away from home get even worse in their five games played on a neutral court this year. Dayton is giving up 76.0 points per game on neutral courts on 48.7% shooting. They only have a 39.4% field goal percentage in their five games played on a neutral court. Since Anthony Grant became their head coach, the Flyers have covered the point spread in five of their previous fourteen games on a neutral court when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick em. They have covered the point spread in only two of their ten conference tournament games with Grant on the sidelines. The Rams are a tough matchup for this team. They followed up a 93-73 loss at VCU on February 6th with a 68-62 loss at home in the rematch as a 1.5-point favorite on March 6th. Dayton has covered the point spread just once in their four games on the road when playing with revenge this year. They have covered the point spread in three of their previous nine games when avenging an upset loss to their current opponent. The Flyers are at their best when they are forcing turnovers. They are second in the Atlantic 10 with a defensive turnover rate of 20.2%. Yet the Rams are second in the conference with an offensive turnover rate of 14.5%. Dayton can also get into trouble against opponents that are good at getting second chances on offense. The Flyers rank second-to-last in the Atlantic 10 with a defensive rebounding rate of 68.9%. VCU is fifth in the conference with an offensive rebounding rate of 30.7%. Dayton has covered the point spread in only four of their previous fourteen games when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 130 to 139.5, and they have covered the point spread just once in those five games this year. Play VCU minus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
