Nelly’s Big Ten Championship Winner 10-3 B1G
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Purdue vs Michigan
- Release Date
- 03/15/2026 07:41 AM
- Event Date
- 03/15/2026 03:32 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Michigan -6.5 (-108)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Purdue has won three games in three days to reach the Big Ten final after a somewhat disappointing 7th place finish in the Big Ten standings from being a top rated team in the preseason. Purdue is just 1-2 ATS in Chicago this week and Matt Painter is on a 2-12 ATS run in Big Ten Tournament games going back to 2021. Purdue has a veteran roster and yesterday’s reasonably comfortable win did allow the Boilermakers to spread around its minutes against UCLA. Michigan is only facing its third game in Chicago and after two close calls in which the Wolverines were limited to 71 and 68 points, Sunday’s game could provide Michigan with an opportunity to open its scoring up. Michigan shot poorly from 3-point range Saturday until hitting the game-winning triple at the buzzer and yesterday’s game featured very few fouls called, as a Wolverines team that can score significantly at the line only had 12 free throw attempts. In the 91-80 win over Purdue in West Lafayette, Michigan scored 18 points at the line and led by as many as 20. Purdue’s defense this season has not been nearly as successful as Painter’s Final Four team of 2023-24 and the Boilermakers have been particularly vulnerable to inside scoring. Purdue’s 2-point defense is nearly nine percent worse than Michigan’s 2-point defense and with a massive frontcourt for the Wolverines, high-percentage looks will be frequent. Wisconsin made 16 3-point shots yesterday to keep pace with Michigan but that kind of volume beyond the arc has been unusual for Purdue, who hasn’t topped 10 3-point shots made so far in the three games in Chicago. Michigan beat Purdue 86-68 last season in the Big Ten tournament as Dusty May is now 5-0 S/U in Big Ten tournament games. Purdue lost seven of its final 12 Big Ten regular season games and isn’t playing at a dramatically higher level than the Wisconsin or Ohio State teams which Michigan faced favorite spreads nearly twice as high against the past two days.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
