Nelly’s A-10 Game of the Year 7-0 A-10 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Dayton vs Va Commonwealth
- Release Date
- 03/15/2026 07:40 AM
- Event Date
- 03/15/2026 01:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Va Commonwealth -3 (-110)
(Consensus Line)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- VCU beat Dayton twice in the regular season, winning 99-73 in early February at home and then winning the regular season finale in Dayton 68-62 in a game that was tight throughout. Dayton shot poorly from long range in that game but was very successful scoring inside. With 7’1” Amael L’Etang, the Flyers have formidable size, and L’Etang was the hero yesterday with a tip-in just before the buzzer in the upset over Saint Louis. Dayton rallied from down 11 about halfway through the second half and benefitted from 29 free throw attempts against the top seed, with free throws a big advantage for the Flyers in holding off St. Bonaventure on Friday as well. Dayton was the #1 free throw percentage team in the A-10 and the team that received the largest portion of its points in the conference at the line. VCU isn’t far behind in free throw success however while the VCU defense generally avoids fouling and the Rams have allowed just a combined 17 free throw attempts the past two days in reasonably comfortable wins over Duquesne and Saint Joseph’s. By most projections VCU would still get an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament with a loss today but it isn’t a sure thing, and the Rams ironically might need to pack for Dayton to play a First Four game Tuesday or Wednesday if they don’t win today in Pittsburgh. Dayton now has two wins over Saint Louis and in both of those results a massive free throw edge was a major factor. That isn’t likely to occur in this matchup Sunday and VCU projects to have clear edges in turnovers and rebounding in this pairing. Dayton’s 2-point scoring success in the most recent meeting between these teams is also out of sync with the season A-10 numbers. Lazar Djokovic can contend with L’Etang in the paint while the VCU will have a size edge in the backcourt. VCU has won low-scoring and high-scoring games in this matchup this season and is on a 7-2 ATS run in the head-to-head series since the 2022-23 season. It is a great opportunity for Dayton to steal a NCAA Tournament spot from fourth place in the regular season and the Flyers have a solid defense, but the two recent wins over the Billikens are the only two top 50 wins of the season for Dayton. Phil Martelli Jr.’s first season in Richmond has produced a balanced Rams squad that is now 15-1 S/U since early January with all of those wins by at least four points and five straight games allowing 66 or fewer points with the elevated stakes into March.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
