TDG’s NCAA-B CONFERENCE UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Wagner vs Central Connecticut
- Release Date
- 03/04/2026 06:30 PM
- Event Date
- 03/04/2026 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Wagner +3.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* NCAA-B Northeast Conference Underdog of the Year is on Wagner plus the points versus Central Connecticut at 7:00 pm et.
After a 62-55 loss at home to Central Connecticut on January 29th, Wagner dropped to 1-7 in Northeastern Conference play. Since then, the Wagner has gone 7-3 with two of those losses being against the first-place Long Island Sharks and the third loss being against the Blue Devils again on their home court, 84-67. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in six of their previous eight games when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season against their current opponent. They have covered the point spread in seven of their previous ten games on the road when avenging a loss against their opponent. Head coach Dwan McMillan has his team playing their best basketball just in time for the conference tournament. The late-season improvement is not surprising for this squad after fourth-year head coach Donald Copeland was suspended in September and later fired for player abuse. The 36-year-old McMillan took over in his absence. The identity of this team remains to slow down the pace of play, crash the offensive glass, and make 3s. The Seahawks are second in the Northeast Conference with an offensive rebounding rate of 34.0%. They lead the conference with a 36.8% field goal percentage from 3-point land. Their defensive play has improved in the last month as they have held their previous nine opponents to 69.8 points per game, a 2.5 point decline from their season defensive average. Wagner comes into the conference tournament quarterfinals on a four-game winning streak after an 80-61 victory at home against Chicago State on Saturday. They hit the road where they have covered the point spread in ten of their previous sixteen games.
Central Connecticut won for the seventh time in their previous eight games in a 69-64 victory against Saint Francis on Saturday. Yet the Blue Devils have covered the point spread once in their previous six games at home after winning their previous game. Central Connecticut averages 74.3 points per game on 47.4% shooting, yet those season numbers are skewed against some soft non-division I competition in November when they scored 117 and 121 points in two victories. Against division 1 opponents, their field goal percentage dips to 45.7%. They are giving up 70.9 points per game on 42.9% shooting, yet when they are playing at home, they are giving up 71.0 points per game on 45.3% shooting. This is a dangerous game for the second seed in the conference tournament. They have covered the point spread only twice in their previous seven games in the Northeast Conference tournament under head coach Patrick Sellers. They rank just ninth in the conference in defensive efficiency. Good rebounding teams can give them trouble since they rank eighth in the conference, with their opponents rebounding 31.3% of their misses. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in three of their previous ten games at home, and they have covered the point spread only once in their previous five games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of up to six points or as a pick ‘em. Play Wagner plus the points.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
