- Analysis
- Vanderbilt lost its last meeting with the Kentucky Wildcats, the second clash from last season, and now it's time for the Commodores to get revenge.
Quick hit: Vandy is 6-3 ATS (67%) in this series.
And I think this is the perfect time to do so, as Vandy finally snapped its three-game skid with an 88-56 road rout of Mississippi State and now returns home for a one-off before heading to Ole Miss over the weekend.
I still think this is the dangerous team that opened the season 16-0 and was beating teams by an average of 21 points per game. During the season-opening stretch, the Commodores were shooting 50.3% from the floor and 36.8% from 3-point range, while their effective field-goal percentage was 58.7%.
And keep in mind, while digesting those numbers, the Commodores have played a tougher schedule, per KenPom.
Vandy, which ranks No. 13 with its net rating at KP, has the 18th toughest schedule per KP's metrics, while Kentucky (28th) has the 28th-toughest schedule at the site.
Sure, the Wildcats have won five in a row, but they're also a mediocre 2-2 in true road games and 1-2 on neutral courts. And since this team struggles to pressure the ball and force turnovers (223rd, 11.6 per game), we're going to see Vandy's high-scoring offense come to life.
The Commodores rank 10th nationally with 90.1 points per game on 49.3% shooting, 28th highest in the country. They are a dangerous team from 3-point range, hitting 10.2 per contest, tied for 40th in the nation. And since Kentucky is allowing 11.2 treys per road game, on 38.8% shooting from beyond the arc, I can see Vandy pulling away in this one.
Lay the home chalk, as this revenge rout gets there by double digits while Vandy covers for the seventh time in 10 meetings.
