CBK Inner Circle Insider - Tuesday
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Creighton vs Marquette
- Release Date
- 01/27/2026 11:46 AM
- Event Date
- 01/27/2026 09:30 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Creighton -1.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- I like Creighton to cover tonight at Marquette because this game has trended heavily in favor of the team that wins the metrics. Creighton is only getting bet up to a short road favorite (about -1.5 to -2.5, total 155.5), so we’re not expecting another blowout from the Bluejays, simply consistent play over 40 minutes. The easiest factor to key in on is how Creighton scores inside the arc compared to how Marquette has defended opponents recently. Marquette has been one of the worst defenses in college basketball over their last five games, allowing over 1.20 points per possession, and their game summary notes their biggest struggles have come defending the two-point basket. Paired against a Creighton team that ranks among the best in the Big East at finishing possessions (57% on twos), efficiency inside the paint should allow Creighton to keep their offense from being “make-or-miss threes,” which is ideal when gambling on a team to cover a small number on the road.
The trend of Marquette struggling defensively to keep up with Creighton’s efficient scoring is only further amplified. I’m not expecting a replication of that beatdown in Milwaukee, but the game script illustrates Creighton’s style of play can lead to large deficits if Marquette gives them anything more than mild resistance. Creighton also gets the slight edge in roster news and availability. Marquette has missed Sean Jones (out/progressing) recently while Creighton lists Owen Freeman questionable to play tonight due to illness. That said, my larger point here is Marquette simply doesn’t have the defensive talent/reserves behind Sylvester Walton Jr. and Trent Nance Jr. to cover up for inefficiency/spikes in shooting should they occur.
In a game that should be close, I’ll lean on the team that’s playing better defense and getting more efficient two-point field goals.
Jim's Play: 653. Creighton
