CBK Triple Dog Delight - Tuesday
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Nebraska vs Michigan
- Release Date
- 01/27/2026 11:44 AM
- Event Date
- 01/27/2026 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Nebraska +10.5 (-110)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- I get wanting Michigan to win by double digits considering who they are and what Nebraska did this season (yes they went 20–0 but…), but it feels like too big of a cushion. It also provides Nebraska plenty of paths to cash a ticket if they can’t get it outright.
The easiest “cover script” for Nebraska to follow centers around their perimeter attack. Nebraska makes 38.5% from three and relies heavily on the three ball for scoring, exactly what you want to do when you’re catching +10.5 because threes can close spreads quickly. Nebraska at its normal three-point shooting rate will force Michigan to defend extended possessions, which should lead to problems if the Huskers can keep hitting shots.
Nebraska also profiles like a team that can maintain their defense on the road. Team-level efficiency metrics have Nebraska playing quality defense overall (0.931 def. efficiency), while also keeping opponents around 30.5% from three and generating a relatively low FTA/play. Both of those latter statistics matter against a team like Michigan because the favorite will need scoring margin. Michigan can score, no doubt, but if Nebraska can stay out of foul trouble and force Michigan to earn their points (rather than give them freebies at the line) the periods where Michigan pulls away become harder to come by.
The last thing to mention here is game composure and depth. Nebraska showed their mettle late against Minnesota by knifing the Gophers with efficient shooting and an enormous second-half explosion. It matters when talking about a cover because covers are often won by one team staying composed through a difficult 4-6 minute span before striking back immediately.
For what it’s worth, if I had to pick a score to give Nebraska the +10.5 cover it would probably look something like Michigan 82, Nebraska 76 played close throughout where both teams make shots and Nebraska’s three-point barrage keeps it under.
Jim's Play: 605. Nebraska
