TOM'S 30-13 ATS NCAA FIESTA BOWL BEST BET
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Miami Florida vs Mississippi
- Release Date
- 01/08/2026 07:47 AM
- Event Date
- 01/08/2026 07:45 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Mississippi +3.5 (-115)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- #274 MISSISSIPPI (+) over Miami Florida at 7:30 PM EST
With a ticket to the National Championship Game on January 19th in Miami up for grabs, the Rebels will pull off the minor upset over the Hurricanes in the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday night. Ole Miss played one of its best games of the season in the Sugar Bowl last week and new head coach Pete Golding and his boys will duplicate that effort in Glendale, Arizona.
Holding a 34-6 SU and 23-13-1 ATS record, Mississippi has certainly been on a roll in its last 40 games. In this run tackling an opponent that carries a team won/loss percentage of .701 or higher, the Rebels improve to a healthy 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS. Also, in non-conference play, Coach Golding and his troops have been a solid investment posting a proud 15-0 SU and 10-2 ATS mark. Finally, SEC underdogs competing on the road or at a neutral site hold a reliable 69-42 ATS mark provided they are lined up against an ACC opponent. If our "play on" side sports a team won/loss percentage of .650 or higher, this conference angle improves to an elite 30-13 ATS.
Holding a rough 28-47-1 ATS record, Miami hasn't exactly been the most reliable favorite in college football. In this run priced competitively at -11 or less, the Hurricanes fall to a miserable 13-27 ATS including a brutal 10-26 ATS provided this is not their last home game. Also, the 'Canes own a poor 4-13 SU and ATS tally in their last 17 bowl battles including a horrible 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS provided they are priced as a favorite or an underdog of +2.5 or less.
Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss torched the Bulldogs for 362 yards and two touchdowns and he will be the key to this Fiesta Bowl victory. Take Mississippi. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
