Doc's FCS Quarterfinal Smash
- Handicapper
- Doc's Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Illinois St vs UC Davis
- Release Date
- 12/13/2025 11:01 AM
- Event Date
- 12/13/2025 05:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Uc Davis -2.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- 6-unit play: Take #308954 UC-Davis -2.5 over Illinois State (Saturday, Dec. 13th, 5:00 p.m. ESPN+) We're backing the home chalk of UC Davis tonight as the Aggies host Illinois State in the FCS quarterfinals. UC Davis enters with momentum and multiple edges, boasting an offense that averages 32.5 points per game behind redshirt freshman quarterback Caden Pinnick. His 2,800 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and dual-threat ability pair with wideout Samuel Gbatu Jr.'s field-stretching speed and Jordan Fisher's 1,000-yard rushing season to form a balanced attack. Against a Redbirds defense that showed cracks in its upset of North Dakota State, the Aggies are primed to light up the scoreboard.
Illinois State counters with a strong defense led by Tye Niekamp's 145 tackles, but UC Davis has the blueprint to break through. Pinnick's efficiency and low turnover rate, combined with disruptive defenders like Sam Goligoski and Jacob Psyk, give the Aggies the tools to control the line of scrimmage. Last year's 42-10 rout of Illinois State showed how UC Davis can dictate tempo. With Redbirds quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse nursing a hamstring injury, the Aggies' front seven should find opportunities to tilt possession.
Beyond the matchups, intangibles favor UC Davis. The Aggies enjoy home-field energy and fresher legs, while Illinois State arrives worn down from five road trips in six weeks. Their dramatic win over NDSU was draining, and sustaining that level against a rested UC Davis squad is unlikely. With momentum, depth, and the home crowd behind them, the Aggies are set to advance with a decisive 34-24 victory.
