25* NBA DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks
- Release Date
- 12/03/2025 06:11 PM
- Event Date
- 12/03/2025 08:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks Over 228.5 (-108)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Detroit Pistons (577) and the Milwaukee Bucks (578). THE SITUATION: Detroit (17-4) has won two games in a row after their 99-98 win at home against Atlanta as a 9.5-point favorite on Monday. Milwaukee (9-13) has lost eight of their last nine contests after their 129-126 upset loss at Washington as a 10.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pistons have won 15 of their last 17 games — but those 99 points they scored against the Hawks were the second-lowest mark of the season and the fewest points they have scored in their last 17 contests. They only made 44.2% of their shots from the field against Atlanta, which was the third-lowest shooting percentage in their last ten contests. They have nailed at least 50% of their shots in five of their last eight contests. Detroit lives in the paint — they are taking 56.9% of their shots inside the paint, which would be the highest mark in the last 13 NBA regular seasons. They are also playing at the tenth fastest pace in the league. They are making 48.6% of their shots, which is resulting in 118.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are even better on the road by making 51.0% of their shots, which is generating 119.9 PGG. The Pistons have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 6 of their 7 games this season Over the Total with the Total set in the 220s, including all four of those games played on the road. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Furthermore, while the Bucks are getting outrebounded by -5.1 Rebounds-Per-Game, Detroit has played 5 of their 6 games on the road this season Over the Total against teams who are getting outrebounded by -3.0 or more RPG. Milwaukee nailed 54.8% of their shots against the Wizards, which was the third straight game where they made at least 52.1% of their shots. Not coincidentally, Giannis Antetokounmpo played in all three of those games after missing four games in a row last month. The Bucks are scoring at a 125.7 points per 100 possession pace when the Greek Freak is on the court — and that mark would be the best in the NBA if applied to the entire season. He is scoring 30.3 PPG. Milwaukee is making 51.2% of their shots at home, which is resulting in 119.9 PPG, which is +3.9 PPG above their season average. The problem is on the other end of the court, where they just allowed the woeful Wizards to make 52.0% of their shots. The Bucks rank 23rd in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are allowing their guests to convert on 48.3% of their shots when playing at home, which is resulting in 118.9 PPG. Milwaukee has played 8 of their last 12 games at home this season Over the Total — and they have played all 5 of their games at home as an underdog Over the Total. They have also played all 4 of their games Over the Total at home with the Total set in the 220s. Furthermore, while this is their eighth game since November 20th, they have played 14 of their last 18 home games Over the Total when playing for the eighth time in the last 14 days. And in their last 23 games at home with one day of rest, the Bucks have played 20 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: After the Pistons’ 129-115 victory on the road in Milwaukee on November 22nd in the first meeting between these two teams, these Central Division rivals have played 10 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Detroit Pistons (577) and the Milwaukee Bucks (578). Best of luck for us — Frank.
