Nelly’s Big Ten Game of the Month 3-1 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NCAAB
- Competition
- Northwestern vs Wisconsin
- Release Date
- 12/03/2025 07:26 AM
- Event Date
- 12/03/2025 09:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Northwestern +9.5 (-108)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Close games have been the norm between these teams with seven consecutive games since January 2022 decided by a single-digit margin. Wisconsin won both meetings last season with a regular season win 75-69 and a Big Ten tournament win 70-63, with the Wildcats slowing the pace of play. That potential pace makes this underdog price more valuable, and it is the largest spread in this series since January 2021. Both teams are 5-2 ahead of this Big Ten opener and while Wisconsin is 4-0 at home, none of those wins carries any real substance. In three top 100 games Wisconsin is just 1-2 and both losses came by double-digit margins. Northwestern grades as a significantly stronger team than the Providence team the Badgers beat in San Diego last week for the team’s only quality win. Nick Boyd has been a great addition for the Badgers, but he can’t replace what John Tonje did for the team last season and there aren’t many consistent scoring options outside the backcourt of Boyd and John Blackwell. Wisconsin has only been a 33 percent 3-point shooting team this season despite a high volume of 3-point shots while the 3-point defense has been a bit suspect so far this season. Northwestern has twice as many top 150 wins as the Badgers in a 5-2 start and both losses were to quality teams in close games away from home. The difference in valuation of Virginia and Oklahoma State, who both beat Northwestern by five points, and Wisconsin isn’t likely as dramatic as this spread suggests. Northwestern has wins over DePaul and South Carolina away from home and the Wildcats were rarely blown out last season as only three of 16 losses came by more than 10 points. The Wildcats played four overtime games last season and had nine top 100 wins. The roster has endured some turnover for Chris Collins, but this has looked like a similar team statistically and there are strong 3-point shooting and turnover numbers on both sides of the ball for Northwestern. The Badgers won’t overlook the Big Ten opener, but this team is coming off a west coast trip and will host rival Marquette this weekend and this may not be an ideal spot on the schedule for a team that lost badly against the best two defensive teams it has faced this season.
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