Nelly's Afternoon Showcase Winner 52-38 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NFL
- Competition
- Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos
- Release Date
- 11/14/2025 05:21 PM
- Event Date
- 11/16/2025 04:25 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 (-115)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Broncos won the Week 18 meeting in this series last season for a 3-0 ATS run vs. the Chiefs including back-to-back S/U wins in Denver since a losing streak of 16 games against the Chiefs dating back to 2015. Denver got the job done on Thursday in Week 10 to reach 8-2 though there are plenty of red flags in the profile. The contrast at quarterback is as severe as the perception. Patrick Mahomes has the second best QBR in the NFL while Box Nix is 18th. Nix has four interceptions in the past three games despite three Denver wins and the Broncos have been incredibly fortunate with six one-score wins this season, even against some of the worst teams in the NFL. The extended turnaround benefit from the Thursday game last week has been negated with the Chiefs coming off a bye week last week. Denver’s bye is next week for 11 games in 11 weeks with Denver taking a seven-game winning streak into this game but with just 28 points scored the past two weeks. Already with four losses, the Chiefs have no margin for error in the race to the top AFC seed and a pairing with the Colts is up next week. The Chiefs have hit 60% ATS in the past 10 games as a road favorite while 4-2 ATS the past two seasons as a road favorite of 4 or fewer points. The Chiefs have stepped up on both sides of the ball in recent weeks to beat the season averages. Denver went 0-2 S/U and ATS as home underdogs last season and the Chiefs are 23-8 S/U on the road since 2022.
Thank you for playing with Nelly's and Best of Luck.
