- Analysis
- At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (105) and the New York Giants (106). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (4-1) lost their first game of the season on Sunday in a 21-17 upset loss at home against Denver as a 4-point underdog. New York (1-4) comes off a 26-14 loss on the road against New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We were on the Eagles on Sunday in a bitter loss where they blew a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter. The officiating was infuriating in that game — every coin flip call went the Broncos ' way in that second half. But the cold, hard truth that I have accepted is that something is wrong with this Philadelphia team. The two-hour “meeting” between Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and A.J. Brown that took place this week is all the evidence one needs that all is right. Double-long marriage sessions rarely work — and I am skeptical that this meeting fixed the Philly offense. There is an emerging conventional wisdom that the Eagles “lack an identity!” I disagree. I think they have a screaming out loud identity of the cocky jerk who thinks he is better than he really is — and doesn’t that seem to be a description of head coach Nick Sirianni? They doubled-down in their faith and reliance on the tush-push in the wake of league wide concerns about the safety of the play (and while the NFL messaging on this has been incoherent with bad arguments about fairness and “is it an NFL play”, there are serious safety concerns that come from rugby who banned scrums when they reach the point of contact similar to what the tush-push generates). That aside, the situation certainly made a team that already has a huge chip on their shoulder (the head coach has a personal security guard, Big Dom). I don’t think the Eagles ran the ball only 11 times last week, while having Hurts drop back to pass 44 times was simply to make Brown happy. His eight targets were two behind Devonta Smith’s ten targets. No, I think that undefeated team decided: “the media does not think we pass enough? Fine, we will pass the ball 80% of the time against the Broncos and still win!” And that explains why they did not use Barkley much in the fourth quarter to protect their lead last week (only two designed runs in the second half, to my exasperation). He only had six carries in the game! Philadelphia’s identity is of the insecure man feeling the need to disprove every critic by feigning an aura of invincibility (and, ironically, exposing their limitations by that process). But the other uncomfortable truth with this team is that Barkley is not performing at the same level as he did last season. The fantasy football community was very concerned about his 345 carries in the regular season and his 482 overall touches last season, when including the playoffs. There is interesting historical data indicating running backs with high usage like that experience declines in production the next year. After Barkley ran for 88 yards in Week One, he has since run for 60, 46, 43, and then 30 yards in each subsequent week. Even more concerning, after leading the NFL by averaging 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry in the second half last season, he is only averaging 2.65 YPC in the second half this year. Those concerning numbers for this offense are then compounded by the absence of left guard Landon Donovan tonight, who is out with an ankle injury. Who knows what demon Sirianni and this team will feel they must slay this week — but it probably involves feeding Barkley the rock frequently, despite his seeming loss of explosiveness. As it is, the Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss. They have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight up loss — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 13 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 20 of their last 30 road games Under the Total with Hurts healthy and under center. New York has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They have scored only 44 combined points in their last three games. And while I do think the offense is in better shape with rookie Jaxson Dart under center rather than that stat-padder that Russell Wilson has become in the twilight of his career, injuries are depriving him of his best weapons in the passing game. Malik Nabors is out the year after his torn ACL injury — and the Giants have scored 50 combined points in the three games played without him. To make things even worse, WR2 Darius Slayton will miss this game due to a hamstring injury. The challenge was already going to be stiff with the rookie quarterback having to decipher defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s defensive schemes — especially when Fangio even made Patrick Mahomes look silly in the Super Bowl last February. On the other side of the ball, my offseason deep dive on this team led to the conclusion that I was kinda bullish on the New York defense given their pass rush. This unit got torched against Washington and Dallas — but in their last three games since, they are limiting their opponents to 325.3 total Yards-Per-Game and have not surrendered more than 338 yards in that span. The Giants have played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total in the first half of the season, including all 10 of those games played at home. They have played 26 of their last 32 games Under the Total at home as an underdog — and they have played 23 of their 32 home games Under the Total as a single-digit underdog since Brian Daboll took over as their head coach.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. These two teams have also played 10 of their 14 meetings at night Under the Total, including eight of those 11 games played at MetLife Stadium. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (105) and the New York Giants (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
