Hollywood Sports - Auburn vs Baylor

25* COLLEGE FOOTBALL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH!

Handicapper

Hollywood Sports

League

NCAAF

Competition

Auburn vs Baylor

Release Date

08/29/2025 05:27 PM

Event Date

08/29/2025 08:00 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Baylor +1.5 (-115) (BetMGM)

Outcome

Loss

Analysis

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (164) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (163). THE SITUATION: Baylor (0-0) comes off an 8-5 season that ended with a 44-31 loss against LSU in the Texas Bowl. Auburn (0-0) looks to rebound from a 5-7 season where they did not play in a bowl game for the second time in the last three years. REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINT(S): Head coach Dave Aranda went into the offseason of the 2024 season on the hot seat — and the best decision he made was hiring California offensive coordinator and former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital, with the offense returning to the Air Raid but with up-tempo principles. The Bears lost four of their first six games before the offense really started to click — and they won their final six games of the regular season, with five of those victories being by double-digits. The offense generated 440.1 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 34.4 Points-Per-Game, ranking 20th and tied for 19th in the nation — and they scored at least 31 points nine times. Senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson took over under center in their third game — and he thrived in Spavital’s system by completing 62% of his passes for 3071 yards with 28 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. The offensive line improved dramatically along the way from previous seasons. Eight starters are back from that group, including Robertson — and Aranda was active in the transfer portal to bring in more talent for the wide receiver room. Aranda is considered a defensive guru from the great job he did as the defensive coordinator for LSU in their national championship run. His defense hit rock bottom two years ago, ranking 113th and 110th by surrendering 33.3 Points-Per-Game and 421.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The “fix” last year was for Aranda to call the defensive plays this year while also coaching the linebackers. The Baylor defense took a few steps forward last season by surrendering 386.2 total YPG (87th in the FBS) and ranking 63rd in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ defensive ratings. Aranda replaced a few of the assistant coaches on that side of the ball. With eight players on defense with starting experience, including a couple of players added in the transfer portal, the expectation is that this group will take another step forward. Aranda usually gets his team to start the season well (despite last year’s slow start). The Bears have covered the point spread in 10 of their 15 games in the first month of the season under Aranda, including three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games played on turf. For the second-straight season, Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze brought in a haul of talent from both the freshman class and the transfer portal. But Freeze is fast running out of excuses after a 5-7 season that followed a 6-7 campaign in his first year with the program. It was the fourth straight losing season for this program. The Tigers did outgain their SEC opponents by +62 net Yards-Per-Game — but too often this team found ways to lose. Three of their losses were accompanied by postgame win expectancies of 94%, 76%, and 61%. On offense, the question will be at quarterback, where Freeze brought in former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. He should be an immediate upgrade over Payton Thorne, who I considered the weak link of this offense last season. Arnold’s mobility makes him a better fit for the RPO-heavy Freeze offense. Arnold played very well in leading the Sooners to an upset victory against Alabama. But he demonstrated some impatience with his decision-making in the pocket, and playing behind a porous offensive line left him skittish with his pocket awareness and internal clock by the end of the season. If those issues linger into some PTSD under pressure this year, then the Tigers may continue to struggle to finish over .500. Losing running back Jarquez Hunter to the NFL will hurt — especially since the Auburn offense ranked 115th in Finishing Drives last season. The defense must replace seven starters from last year’s group that held their opponents to 21.3 PPG. This is the Tigers’ first opening game away from Jordan-Hare Stadium since 2019 — and it is their first opener played in a hostile environment since 2003 when they opened at USC. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 8 games in the first month of the season since Freeze took over as their head coach including both of those games played on the road. FINAL TAKE: The Bears have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games at home, with the Total set in the 52.5 to 63 point range, including six of those last nine contests. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month is with the Baylor Bears (164) plus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (163). Best of luck for us — Frank.