25* CFB CONFERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Sam Houston St vs Western Kentucky
- Release Date
- 08/23/2025 03:37 PM
- Event Date
- 08/23/2025 07:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Western Kentucky -10 (-108)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (308) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (307). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (0-0) comes off an 8-6 season that culminated in a 27-17 loss against James Madison in the Boca Raton Bowl. Sam Houston (0-0) finished 10-3 last year after a 31-26 victory against Georgia Southern in the New Orleans Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HILLTOPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: Seventh-year head coach Tyson Helton has grown accustomed to massive roster turnover due to the transfer portal — he has led the Hilltoppers to four-straight seasons with eight or more victories. Western Kentucky has averaged 18 players lost a year to the transfer portal over the last four years; they have averaged 21 players brought in per year from the portal. For this season, Helton lost 37 players to the transfer portal, including seven players who seemingly upgraded to Power-Four conference opponents. He brought in 43 new transfers. At least Helton brought back 14 starters for last year’s team that finished 8-6. Helton reached into his bag of tricks by bringing in senior quarterback Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian, along with his offensive coordinator, Rick Bowie, this season. This formula was very successful for the Hilltoppers in 2021 when Helton brought in quarterback Bailey Zappe and offensive coordinator Zach Kittley from Houston Baptist. McIvor passed for more than 3800 yards last year with 30 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions — and he passed for 508 yards in a shootout 52-51 loss to Texas Tech. Helton’s teams usually find ways to score in Helton’s hybrid “pro-raid” offense that mixes Air Raid principles within a pro-style offense. The other side of the ball is usually the bigger challenge — and Helton had to replace defensive coordinator Tyson Summers, who took the same job at Colorado State. Helton promoted position coaches Da’von Brown and Davis Merritt to run a defense that lost its top 12 tacklers from last year. Two starters are back — and Helton added 16 transfers (four starters from FBS programs) and another three junior college players to help rebuild the defense. Helton should have his team ready to play this game — and having North Alabama on deck should help the cause. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home in the first half of the season. After a 10-3 season that concluded with the program’s first bowl victory in a 31-26 win against Georgia Southern, 12-year head coach K.C. Keeler left Sam Houston to take the head coaching job at Temple in the offseason. The Bearkats turned to a former offensive coordinator, Phil Longo, as their next head coach after he endured a difficult mix of cultures as the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin. Longo had previous success as the offensive coordinator at North Carolina, but his head coaching experience is limited. His Air Raid offense inherits five starters, including senior quarterback Hunter Watson, who accounted for 21 touchdowns last year. The defense presents a bigger challenge with six players joining defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity, who all moved to North Texas — no starters are back for this unit for new defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Linsday, who takes over after coaching the nickelbacks at North Carolina State since 2020. With only four defensive players on the roster after the spring transfer portal who have taken more than 110 snaps at the FBS level, this unit looks to be extremely vulnerable, even before the additional burden of having to take the field after Longo’s up-tempo offense will either score quickly or suffer an even quicker three-and-out. The Bearkats were just 3-9 two seasons ago before their seven-win turnaround was jettisoned by a perfect 6-0 record in one-possession games (second-best in the FBS), a +12 net turnover margin (tied for eighth-best in the FBS), and precious few injuries. Under new leadership, those fortunate occurrences are unlikely to continue. Sam Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Hilltoppers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games at home with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Month with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (308) minus the points versus the Sam Houston Bearkats (307). Best of luck for us — Frank.
