4% MLB "BEST BET!" OFF PERFECT SWEEP!
- Handicapper
- Nick Parsons
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Release Date
- 08/20/2025 06:28 AM
- Event Date
- 08/20/2025 07:35 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Under 8.5 (-108)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- This is a 1% BEST BET on the UNDER in the Yanks/Rays.
The Yanks hold down the No. 1 Wildcard spot in the American League. The Rays are 6.5 games back of the final Wildcard position.
After sweeping in St. Louis over the weekend, New York then won the opener here yesterday 13-3.
Tampa took two of three at San Francisco.
Yesterday's game flew well OVER the number and each side has been playing to several higher-scoring games oaf late (the Yanks have now played to three straight OVERS), but with two quality starters scheduled for this one, I'm finally expecting more of a "duel" here Wednesday.
The Yanks go with Cameron Schlittler (1-2, 3.94 ERA) and a 30:14 K:BB over 30 innings of work. His ERA is 4.22 at home and 3.60 on the road so far.
Schlittler will have his work cut out for him throwing opposite Tampa ace Drew Rasmussen (10-5, 2.60 ERA), who has a 102:25 K:BB so far this season.
Rasmussen most recently allowed two runs over six innings in a victory over the A's. It was his second straight quality start and he's now allowed two runs or less in his last seven trips to the mound, posting a 2.08 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP and a 28:4 K:BB across 30.1 innings during that span.
Finally note, while he's 5-0 on the road and 5-5 at home, his ERA is 2.68 away from friendly confines and 2.56 in front of the hometown crowd.
For me, handicapping MLB primarily comes down to the starting pitching and with Rasmussen here at home and setting the tone like I believe he will, I look for this total to stay well UNDER the number.
Good luck, NP
