Sean's CFB THURS. TOTAL DOMINATOR! 77-55 LY!
- Handicapper
- Sean Murphy
- League
- NCAAF
- Competition
- Boise State vs South Florida
- Release Date
- 08/19/2025 09:45 AM
- Event Date
- 08/28/2025 05:35 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Boise State vs South Florida Under 64.5 (-110)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and South Florida at 5:30 pm et on Thursday August 28th.
I can understand the logic behind this total being set in the 60's, after all the last time we saw South Florida it was lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 40+ points in four of its final six games last season including a wild five-overtime 41-39 victory over San Jose State in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve.
Boise State projects as one of the nation's top-25 teams and comes off an electric year offensively that saw it score 50+ points on four different occasions. I think this season-opener will prove lower-scoring than expected, however.
South Florida has a quarterback conundrum of sorts with two potential starters in the fold in Byrum Brown - who had his season cut short due to injury last year - and Bryce Archie - who stepped in for Brown and arguably outshined him down the stretch.
Losing their two three runners from a year ago doesn't help the Bulls cause. They don't have a ton of proven talent in the passing game either with Keshaun Singleton potentially their top option after catching only 25 passes for 428 yards last year.
Defensively, the Bulls figure to be improved. They have a lot of depth thanks to the transfer portal and plenty of returning talent and experience. This is a group that did make some positive strides a year ago and can take another step forward in 2025 but it has to start in this tough matchup with Boise State.
The Broncos don't get better offensively by losing RB Ashton Jeanty to the NFL. The passing game is led by returning QB starter Maddux Madsen. He had a terrific 2024 campaign but was undoubtedly helped by opponents focusing much of their efforts on Jeanty. TE Matt Lauter might be the best option in the passing game out of the gate. While this offense will be elite once again, I think we could see a big of a slow start - relatively speaking.
Defensively, the Broncos don't get enough credit for their consistency. I like the matchup here as Boise State is absolutely loaded from the back-end in with one of the better secondaries in the nation. There's not a ton of size up front but that it lacks in that department it makes up for in athleticism and speed. I like the way this matchup sets up for the Broncos defense against a Bulls offense that might not be so sure of itself in Week 1. Take the under (8*).
