TDG’s MLB FRIDAY NIGHT VEGAS *JACKPOT*
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres
- Release Date
- 08/08/2025 03:28 PM
- Event Date
- 08/08/2025 09:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
San Diego Padres -164
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Our 20* MLB Friday Night Vegas Jackpot is with San Diego with the money line versus Boston at 9:40 pm et.
The San Diego Padres are on a 9-2 hot streak in their last eleven games after a 3-2 win at Arizona on Wednesday. The Padres have won twenty-two of their last thirty-five games at home after winning their previous game. They have won five of their last seven games at home following an off day. Their 64-51 record puts them in second place in the NL West, two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. They come back home to Petco Park, where they have a 36-19 record this year, and they have won eleven of their last sixteen games at home. They have won sixteen of their last twenty-five games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite in the -125 to -175 price range. They have won five of their last six games at home against winning teams in the second half of the season. Nick Pivetta gets the start tonight. The right-hander has an 11-3 record with a 2.73 era and a 0.94 whip in twenty-two starts. In his last seven starts, the veteran has been absolutely filthy with a 1.01 era and a 0.65 whip in those 44 2/3 innings. His walk rate of 6.3% of the batters he has faced is the second-lowest mark of his career after walking only 6.1% of the batters he faced last year. He is striking out 27.0% of opposing hitters. His strikeout and walk rate ranks in the top 80th and 78th percentile.
Boston had won seven games in a row before a 7-3 loss against Kansas City on Wednesday. With a 64-52 record, they are in second place in the AL East, trailing the Toronto Blue Jays by four games. On the road, the Red Sox are only hitting .242 with a .309 on-base percentage. They are winless in their last six games on the road against National League teams using a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.20 or lower. They have pulled off only four upsets on the road in their last thirteen games when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line underdog from +125 to +175. Walker Buehler remains in Boston’s starting rotation at least for tonight’s start. The right-hander has a 6-6 record with a 5.74 era and a 1.60 whip in nineteen starts. In his last eleven starts, he has a 7.23 era and a 1.95 whip. He is striking out only 16.7% of opposing hitters, the lowest mark in his career and in the lowest 13th percentile in MLB this year. His chase rate of 19.1% this year ranks in the lowest 10th percentile. He is walking 10.1% of opposing hitters, which ranks in the lowest 22nd percentile and the highest mark since his first season, when he had a brief cup of coffee with less than ten innings at the MLB level. The Padres are averaging 5.2 runs per game in the last week with a .262 batting average, a .338 on-base percentage, and a .419 slugging percentage in those six games. Play San Diego with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
