MLB 1st 5 Inning Totals 2-Pack - Monday
- Handicapper
- Jim Feist
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants
- Release Date
- 07/28/2025 12:28 AM
- Event Date
- 07/28/2025 09:45 PM
- Bet Type
- 1st Half Over / Under
- Pick
-
Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Under 4.5 (-130)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants face off in game one of their series at Oracle Park in San Francisco. The Pirates are starting Mitch Keller on the mound tonight. Keller is an interesting case as he has an ugly 4-10 record but sports a 3.53 ERA and is the epitome of a groundball, contact-oriented, efficient starter who doesn’t give up walks or hard contact early in games. Keller has rarely been touched through the first time through the order and he’s sharp and in command. Look for him to do what he always does: go pitch-for-pitch through lineups the first time around, and that will lead to a quiet five innings.
On the other side, the Giants will start rookie Carson Whisenhunt in his MLB debut. Whisenhunt has a good changeup and solid sequencing but that’s about it for experience at this level. These days you would have to be a fool to bet on a starting pitcher in his MLB debut, as the inexperience and jitters often lead to a slow start. Even in the best-case scenario, new pitchers often get loose and find their rhythm later in their first inning, so Whisenhunt will likely find himself in a similar position.
On the offensive side, neither team should go on early runs. The Pirates are methodical and have historically had trouble jumping on opposing starters, even more so on the road. And given the Giants’ struggles and the presence of a nervous young starter on the mound, Pittsburgh may not want to swing early, either. The offenses also tend to hit for more power on second passes. Both of these factors also point to a lower-scoring affair early on.
Keller is efficient, the Pirates are methodical, and a young Giants starter that is unproven at this point. I think that lines up perfectly for a lower 5 score on the board, and in the end, betting the Under in the first five innings just feels like the sharpest angle here.
Jim's Play: 959. Pirates/Giants UNDER 4.5, 1st 5 Innings
