Nelly’s Thursday Night NL Division Delivery
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres
- Release Date
- 07/10/2025 09:27 AM
- Event Date
- 07/10/2025 09:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Arizona Diamondbacks -116
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- The Padres had a strong run to start the season going 19-11 to emerge as contenders in the tough NL West even with most preseason projections expecting a fall for San Diego. The Padres are still in the NL West and NL Wild Card races, but San Diego is two games below .500 since May 1 and San Diego has a very poor record vs. quality teams. A 28-17 home record stands out, but San Diego is a losing team vs. left-handed starters and just .500 at Petco Park since April 25 as the home record is built on an amazing 12-1 start to the season in home games. In the past 10 games the Padres have scored just 2.8 runs per nine vs. left-handers while in contrast Arizona has scored nearly double that average vs. right-handers. The Diamondbacks have been one of MLB’s top offensive teams all season and Arizona has outscored San Diego 14-6 in the first three games of this series. Arizona pitching has far better numbers in the past 10 games than San Diego as the bullpen has finally put it together, posting a 1.93 ERA in the past 10 games. Veteran Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched far better than his 5.78 ERA suggests, his FIP is just 4.29 and his K/9 is 10.3. A couple of isolated rough outings wipe out many good performances as Rodriguez had five straight starts with two or fewer runs allowed before a tough July 4 start. His splits are better on the road this season and he has a 0.00 ERA at Petco Park in his career. Randy Vasquez has been fool’s gold for San Diego with a 3.79 ERA but a 5.32 FIP. He has a K/9 of just 4.9 next to a BB/9 of 4.2 but he has stranded over 80 percent of his baserunners and has a .245 BABIP for some great bounces going his way. Vasquez has allowed at least three runs in four of his last eight starts and the bullpen for the Padres has needed far more relief innings than Arizona in this series, with the Diamondbacks getting three consecutive strong starts including eight innings last night from Brandon Pfaadt. San Diego is still 3.5 games above the Diamondbacks in the NL West standings, but Arizona has scored 106 more runs than the Padres this season and is stronger recent form including having won three consecutive road series.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
