25* UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE MATCH OF THE YEAR!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- SOCCER
- Competition
- Manchester United vs Tottenham
- Release Date
- 05/21/2025 04:48 AM
- Event Date
- 05/21/2025 03:00 PM
- Bet Type
- Goal Line
- Pick
-
Tottenham +0.25 (-103)
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Tottenham (224402) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224401) in the championship match of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Tottenham advanced to the finals of the Europa League with a 5-1 aggregate victory against Bodo/Glimt in the semifinals after a second-leg 2-0 victory on the road on May 8th. Manchester United joined them in the finals with a 7-2 aggregate victory against Athletic Bilbao following a 4-1 win at home in the second-leg of their semifinals tie on May 8th. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at San Mames Barroa in Bilbao, Spain (the home of Athletic Bilbao).
REASONS TO TAKE TOTTENHAM PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: This is a Spiderman meme match with both sides pointing at each other regarding how similar their situations are going into this contest. Both sides have struggled mightily in the English Premier League with Man United ranking 16th in the league table just one point ahead of the Spurs in 17th place. Massively disappointing seasons could be redeemed by winning a European trophy — and both teams need this victory to quality for European competition next season (and with the significant economic boost of the winner landing in the UEFA Champions League). Both teams have dealt with injuries all season. Both managers are sitting on scalding hot seats with their aggressive possession style tactics getting overrun against fellow EPL opponents. That all said, I find tremendous value in backing Tottenham as a small underdog -- and a tie score after regulation time pays off +0.25 goal-line tickets (albeit at half the investment price after bringing back our initial investment). Don’t get me wrong: I could see the Spurs winning this game outright in regulation time. Their best player, Heung-Min Son was out for a month with a foot injury, but he has returned to the pitch a few weeks ago. I wish James Maddison and Dejan Kuluseski were fit as well — but getting Son back for this match is critical. Manager Ange Postecoglou rested all 11 of his starting XI who started in the second leg against Bodo/Glimit on Friday in a 2-0 loss at Aston Villa — so his starting unit will be rested and ready. Postecoglou’s “Angeball” features progressive attacking principles that seemingly transcend tactics to team philosophy. This approach can result in missteps and defensive miscues along the way given the extreme high-line his defenders will embrace — but he has been consistently successful in getting his group to begin to thrive with these tactics when it counts. He has been proud to proclaim that all of his teams have claimed trophies in his second year with the program — including his last stop at Celtic. This vision has defined Tottenham’s season — and Postecoglou has not been shy about prioritizing the Europa League as the primary goal. He gets criticized for being too rigid with his aggressive tactics — but the Spurs took on a more defensive counter-attacking approach in their most recent Knockout Stage matches in this competition. Man United comes off a 1-0 loss at Chelsea on Friday in a match where manager Ruben Amorim chose to start his best players despite this championship match on the horizon. Amorim claimed he needed his group to engage in the tough match — and he may have been right. The Red Devils may be the slight favorites in this match because they were unbeaten in 14 matches in Europa League play — or it may be reputation. But they were able to outplay mostly Spanish sides from La Liga (and Lyon from Ligue One in the quarterfinals) who play more technical-styled matches in domestic play. Man United quickly and consistently hit a brick wall when facing EPL squads who can balance speed with size and physicality. Amorim’s approach is a possession-based progressive system that is more patient than Angeball — but it has too often been beaten by physical EPL opponents who can tackle and play bully-ball. This is what Postecoglou has been working on. The Red Devils' talent level has declined in recent years — and they are missing key pieces like Matthijs de Ligt, Lisandro Martinez, and Diogo Dalot amongst others to injury. The underlying analytics simply do not justify Man United being a regulation-time favorite. Using expected Goals (xG) data, their 49.37 expected Points in the EPL are more than their 39 actual points — but Tottenham has 49.50 expected Points versus their 38 actual points. On the road, the Spurs have 23.72 expected Points versus the Red Devils’ 21.12 expected Points.
FINAL: Man United has not beaten Tottenham in six straight matches since a victory against them in October of 2022. They have been outscored by a 14-7 margin in those six contests. They have lost all three of their matches against them in the 2024-25 season starting with a 3-0 loss at home in the fall before Amorim had taken over as their new manager. But it was Amorim at the helm in a 4-3 loss in the semifinals of the Carabou Cup — and then the Spurs by a 1-0 score in the reverse EPL fixture back at home at Tottenham Stadium in February. That third meeting was the tightest matchup of all three — but Tottenham still won the xG battle by a 2.2-1.5 margin. Some bettors could consider revenge — but since Postecoglou’s tenure is on the line, there is zero chance he is not taking this match seriously. At a certain point, the positive results for the Spurs speak to Postecoglou’s tactics. I think his team is more prepared physically and emotionally for this showdown — and the pressure on Amorim is enormous since the financial expectations at Man United are higher than any professional sports team in the world. 25* UEFA Europa League Match of the Year with Tottenham (224402) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
